The $10bn battle for US congress: Races to watch

Control of Congress is pivotal to economic policy.

The battle for control of the US Congress has topped $10 billion as the two parties vie for outsized influence over taxes, spending and the implementation of the next president’s agenda.

It’s a staggering and potentially historic sum, based on OpenSecrets data, considering that only about a 10th of congressional races are actually competitive. Yet, it outpaces spending on the hard-fought presidential election.

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The whopping figure reflects the colossal stakes. Control of Congress is pivotal to economic policy. The expiration next year of the 2017 tax law puts trillions of dollars in tax provisions in play. The Senate can block the appointment of key financial-industry regulators. Legislative battles are shaping up over prescription drug prices and regulation of the crypto industry, energy, artificial intelligence and social media.

Republicans are currently favoured to gain the Senate majority based on a favourable map, while minority Democrats have at least an even chance to take control of the US House, potentially reversing both chambers and continuing a divided government. Many races remain tight and the outcome may not be known for days after the November 5 election.

Here are some key races to watch:

The Senate: Montana

Democrats’ hopes in the Senate largely hinge on Montana, where three-term incumbent Jon Tester has trailed Republican Tim Sheehy, a political newcomer, businessman and former Navy Seal. That race is set to break records with about $250 expected to be spent per resident of the sparsely populated state on advertising alone, according to AdImpact data.

Tester, a third-generation farmer, has long relied on his folksy charm and a reputation for delivering resources to his state to overcome its Republican tilt. This year, Democrats hope Tester’s support for abortion rights will help him and other vulnerable candidates hold on.

But former President Donald Trump is expected to win in Montana by double digits, so Tester will need many Montanans to split their ticket between the parties, a practice that has become less common as the electorate has become more polarized.

Ohio

Even if Tester pulls out a win, Democrats would likely need to win every other tossup race, including Ohio, where Sherrod Brown is trying to defend his seat against car dealer Bernie Moreno. Advertising alone has cost more than $530 million in that race, according to AdImpact.

As in Montana, Trump is expected to win Ohio easily, which could give Moreno a boost despite Brown’s popularity with many White working-class voters who form the former president’s base.

Democrats also need to keep seats in the presidential “Blue Wall” battlegrounds of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan — all states where races have tightened — as well as in Arizona and Nevada, where the party’s Senate candidates have held larger leads in polls.

Wild Cards

If Tester loses, Democrats would need an upset win somewhere else. That would likely require Colin Allred to defeat Senator Ted Cruz in Texas or Debbie Mucarsel-Powell to beat Senator Rick Scott in Florida. A wild card race in Nebraska, where independent union leader Dan Osborn has been running neck-and-neck with incumbent Republican Deb Fischer, could also scramble the outcome on election night.

Democrats’ best-case scenario is likely a 50-50 Senate, with control of the chamber depending on the outcome of the presidential race, because the vice president breaks ties.

Republicans, however, could win as many as 55 seats if they sweep the tossup races. A larger majority would widen the aperture for GOP tax cuts and other legislation if they control both chambers of Congress and the White House. In 2017, the party’s thin majority led to the defeat of efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act via a thumb down from then-Senator John McCain.

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The GOP has hoped that popular former Governor Larry Hogan would pull off an against-the-grain win in heavily Democratic Maryland, but Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks has had double-digit leads in recent polls despite significant super political action committee spending on Hogan’s behalf, including $10 million from billionaire Ken Griffin.

The House: New York and California

Democrats’ chances are significantly better in the House, where Republicans now hold only a slim majority and must defend many areas won by President Joe Biden in 2020, including in heavily Democratic states like New York and California. The party needs a net gain of just four seats to hand the speaker’s gavel to Hakeem Jeffries of New York, and with it the power over the federal purse and House investigative subpoenas.

In addition to 10 New York and California seats in play, Democrats have targeted Heartland districts in Nebraska and Iowa now held by Republicans, as well as battlegrounds in New Jersey and Arizona.

A Des Moines Register poll published Sunday showed Democratic challengers in Iowa leading incumbent Republican Representative Mariannette Miller-Meeks by 16 percentage points and incumbent Republican Representative Zach Nunn by 7 points among likely voters. The poll showed a surge for Democrats among women and disproportionate enthusiasm among them for voting in a state that imposed a ban on abortions after about six weeks with limited exceptions.

In Louisiana, a newly reconfigured, majority-Black district favours a Democrat succeeding GOP Representative Garret Graves, who decided not to seek reelection. In Alabama, another redrawn district, similarly designed to give Black voters more voting representation, could bring another seat shift toward Democrats.

Meanwhile, Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana — who unexpectedly ascended to the job late last year after the tumultuous ouster of his predecessor — is scrambling to save his gavel. He has aggressively stumped and raised money nationwide, including a string of events in key New York districts that helped the GOP flip the House two years ago.

Republicans have sought to capitalize on voter discontent on issues like inflation and immigration, targeting open-race seats of retiring Democrats in Michigan, and incumbents in states including New Mexico and Pennsylvania as well as those in districts won by Trump in 2020, like Jared Golden in Maine and Mary Peltola in Alaska.

The first results election night could come from Virginia, where polls close at 7 p.m. New York time, with each party having a pickup opportunity. Republicans hope to take the central Virginia seat being vacated by Democrat Abigail Spanberger, who is running for governor next year, while Democrats try to defeat incumbent Republican Jen Kiggans in a coastal district.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates 208 seats as leaning, likely or solidly Republican compared to 205 for the Democrats, with 22 tossup seats; 218 are needed to ensure a majority.

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