South Africa’s G20 Summit: Can golf help tame Trump?

The next host is already asking.

Flattery will only get you so far. Don’t show weakness, never grovel, and always ask the difficult questions.

As world leaders left Rio de Janeiro after the last major summit of the Biden era, that was the advice for South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa among veteran diplomats familiar with Donald Trump’s approach to the annual Group of 20 (G20) gatherings.

ADVERTISEMENT CONTINUE READING BELOW

Read: Joburg needs G20 Summit more than Cape Town does – Southern Sun boss

Ramaphosa, who is relatively inexperienced on the biggest global stage, will play host next year to the first G20 Summit after Trump returns to the White House. And he’ll need to quickly get up to speed.

Rio had its share of chaos, with events consistently running late and the organisers failing to stage a family photo with all of the leaders, despite making two separate attempts. But there was also a sense of calm before the storm.

Joe Biden maintained a relatively low-key presence, holding only a few bilateral meetings, avoiding personal attacks on his fellow leaders and signing up to the final communique without protest — despite some last-minute shenanigans from the host, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of Brazil.

Read:
B20 and G20 present opportunity for SA to showcase itself to the world
Ramaphosa woos Musk, trumpets trade with the US
South Africa will be president of the G20 in 2025

It’s unlikely the US delegation will behave the same under Trump, as Canada’s Justin Trudeau can attest.

Trudeau was in charge of proceedings at the 2018 Group of Seven in Quebec, which veered off the rails at the last minute after he managed to offend the US leader. Trudeau is due to host the G-7 again in June in what is likely to be Trump’s second-term debut on the global stage.

“The challenge of working with an American president that doesn’t always put multilateralism and, you know, summitry at a high priority is going to be real,” Trudeau said Tuesday in his closing press conference.

“There’ll be new challenges in this one, I have no doubt. But we’ve done this before.”

Ramaphosa, for his part, is relaxed about the prospect of dealing with Trump at what will be the biggest gathering of world leaders in South Africa since the 2013 funeral of Nelson Mandela.

As one of South Africa’s richest men, he’s confident that he’ll be able to strike up a rapport with another businessman-turned-politician, according to people close to the South African leader. They also both enjoy golf, so Ramaphosa is thinking about whether they might be able to strike a bond over 18 holes.

Johann Rupert intervention

That strategy was given credence by the recent intervention of billionaire Johann Rupert, South Africa’s richest man, who helped to set up a call between Ramaphosa and Trump just days after the US election, according to people close to the pro.

Officials in Pretoria sees Trump fundamentally as a dealmaker and they believe they can work with his transactional style.

They will be ready to make concessions and think he’ll be aligned on major issues such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Ramaphosa has also sought to cozy up to South Africa’s prodigal son, Elon Musk, who became one of Trump’s closest allies over the election campaign, appearing at rallies and even joining calls with other world leaders, including Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Musk has been lobbying Ramaphosa to help him win approval to expand Starlink, his satellite-based internet service, into South Africa.

Elon Musk shakes hands with President Cyril Ramaphosa after a meeting in New York in September. Image: GCIS

Read:
Trump presidency poses risks and opportunities for SA – Ninety One boss
‘Starlinking’ South Africa through unconventional means?
SA’s hosting of G20 to boost international tourist numbers

ADVERTISEMENT: CONTINUE READING BELOW

The first test of Ramaphosa’s strategy is likely to come in February when Marco Rubio, Trump’s nominee for secretary of state, potentially attends the G20 foreign minister’s meeting.

Canada’s Trudeau offered advice to Ramaphosa on how to handle these meetings on the sidelines of the meeting in Rio.

Trudeau’s experience in 2018 shows how fast events can spiral out of control, especially if there are issues with US policy that can’t be brushed under the carpet.

Everything had gone smoothly at La Malbaie in Quebec until the very last moment. Trump had even boarded Air Force One to return to Washington when he caught wind of comments that Trudeau had made at his closing press briefing.

Asked by reporters whether he would retaliate against Trump tariffs, Trudeau said a response was on the table. “As Canadians, we are polite, we’re reasonable, but also we will not be pushed around,” he said.

Trump began furiously posting to Twitter, saying Trudeau “acted so meek and mild” to his face at the summit before making big statements to the press.

He instructed US officials not to endorse the communique and called Trudeau “very dishonest and weak.”

For the most part, Trump and Trudeau have moved on since then and they successfully renegotiated a North American trade deal. But Trudeau may still be in for a hard time. He is deeply unpopular in Canada and likely heading for defeat in an election due in the next year. And that’s made him a target for Trump’s inner circle.

“He will be gone,” Musk posted on X recently. Mike Waltz, Trump’s pick for national security advisor, has said Trudeau’s conservative opponent will “send Trudeau packing in 2025 [finally] and start digging Canada out of the progressive mess it’s in.”

Rough ride

Europeans too know they are in for a rough ride whatever happens. Trump and his inner circle despise the European Union and everything it stands for and nothing is going to change that, so EU leaders might as well not worry about it too much, said one senior diplomat.

One summit veteran suggests concentrating on a few issues that the rest of the group can agree on and then trying to bring Trump on board. Keep the focus narrow and don’t overcomplicate things, the diplomat added.

Another said that Ramaphosa would be wise to try and make an issue appear to be Trump’s idea. One way would be to find comments he’s made in the past and explain how they influenced the language in the communique.

Trump has stereotypes about different countries, said a third, and he can be caught off guard with proposals he doesn’t expect from a particular nation.

“I had some good conversations at this G20 with South Africa,” Trudeau said.

“When we stay focused on what matters for Canadians, on the principles and the things that are impacting everyone around the world, including American citizens, there’s always ways of getting through.”

© 2024 Bloomberg

Follow Moneyweb’s in-depth finance and business news on WhatsApp here.