How Ireland's first female PM could shake the foundations of Britain

It has been a year of seismic election results, from Donald Trump's historic reclaiming of the White House in the US to the UK electorate returning a first Labour government since 2010.

However, with just a few days remaining until December festivities subsume the rest of our year's calendar, there is one more possible electoral sensation on the horizon.

Across the Irish Sea, Ireland's electorate are into the candlelight hours of voting in their hugely consequential snap election.

Incumbent Prime Minister Simon Harris, who only assumed the role in April, called for a general election almost half-a-year early, feeling that a 'new manager bounce' of sorts could push his Fine Gael party over the top and secure a fourth successive term in power. 

Sinn Féin's Mary Lou McDonald is out to disrupt this trend though and seeks to not only elevate her Republican party to power for the first time in the history of the Irish state, but also become its first female Prime Minister in the process.

With all three major political parties presently polling at roughly 20 per cent, McDonald's Sinn Féin are neck and neck with the current ruling coalition of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil.

The Sinn Féin leader is also polling as voter's second most preferred option for next Prime Minister out of major party leaders on 22 per cent.

A strong performance in last Tuesday's primetime leaders debate on Irish national broadcaster RTE may yet have tipped the scales further in the direction of Sinn Féin, with a first-time election win certain to result in shockwaves being felt by those nervously watching on from Whitehall. 

In the very first line of its 'plans for Ireland' section in its 2024 election manifesto, Sinn Féin states its goal of delivering 'a plan to achieve a United Ireland' as its foremost domestic policy goal.

Mary Lou McDonald reiterated that sentiment on the campaign trail last week in Dublin, telling the press pool that if elected to power, one of her first acts would be to create a dedicated junior ministry role to pursue and oversee the process of reunification.

McDonald also told reporters that beyond this role, a conversation had to be had with the Starmer administration on delivering a United Ireland this decade.

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'The British Government needs to start now indicating for them what they believe is the tipping point at which they believe a referendum would be called', McDonald said. 

'I've pursued this with them for a long time through many prime ministers, but I think it's necessary that the person who is Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister) would pursue that because, obviously, that brings it to a different level, and a different proposition', the Sinn Féin leader added.

However, British PM Sir Keir Starmer has previously been a staunch objector to Irish reunification, stating during his time in opposition that an Irish unity referendum was 'not even on the horizon'. 

Under the terms of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement though, which brought about an 'official' end to hostilities in Northern Ireland, the UK government must allow for a referendum on unity to take place if evidence of a significant shift in public opinion can be proven. 

If Sinn Féin were to ascend to power in Dublin for the first time though, how could one argue that the prevailing public sentiment had not shifted with the Republican party simultaneously holding both branches of power on either side of the Irish border? 

Ordinarily, a potential Sinn Féin win in an Irish general election would trouble staunch unionists in Whitehall, but ultimately likely prove little more than a thorn in their side.

However, following the party's momentous first ever Northern Irish Assembly win in 2022, Sinn Féin would in this scenario control the legislative houses in both Belfast and Dublin and thus remove some of the largest obstacles to a border poll. 

Unionism in Northern Ireland had previously protected Westminster's rule over the six Ulster counties, but the North's largest unionist party now lies in ruin after the DUP's then-leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson was arrested earlier this year on child sex offence charges.

Moreover, July's UK general election saw Sinn Féin return as the most well-represented Northern Irish party in the House of Commons, with seven of 18 seats won. 

This shift in Northern Ireland's political landscape follows the results of the 2022 census which revealed that Catholics, who traditionally support reunification, outnumbered Protestants in population for the first time in over a century.

With all of the ducks seemingly lining themselves up in a row in favour of a United Ireland, it is clear to see how Sinn Féin's ascension to power in the Republic of Ireland could be the final piece required in the reunification puzzle.

Whether or not Mary Lou McDonald makes political history as votes are counted in the coming days remains to be seen though, with the two other major parties in Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil ardently stating their unwillingness to create a coalition - usually a requirement to form a government in Ireland's proportional representation system.

Nevertheless, as elections have proven over the last number of months both in the UK and abroad, political affirmations are transient in nature, and should the Irish electorate return Sinn Féin as the island's largest political party, it could well prove to be the signaling of the end for British rule in Northern Ireland.