4 Retail Stocks to Buy as Consumer Confidence Lifts Holiday Prospects

The latest consumer confidence data offers promising insights for retailers and the broader U.S. economy. According to the Conference Board, the Consumer Confidence Index surged to 108.7 in October 2024, marking a solid monthly gain since March 2021. This surge reflects a significant increase in optimism among U.S. consumers, a shift that is likely to drive robust spending as the holiday season kicks in.

This positive sentiment is particularly encouraging for retail companies — Target Corporation (TGT Quick QuoteTGT - Free Report) , Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. (BOOT Quick QuoteBOOT - Free Report) , Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST Quick QuoteCOST - Free Report) and Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (ANF Quick QuoteANF - Free Report) — poised to benefit from increased consumer spending. These companies are positioned to capitalize on the growing optimism, positioning themselves as strong contenders in the market as consumer demand rises.

After being revised upward to 99.2 in September, October’s confidence surge exceeded expectations, with economists predicting a smaller rise to 99.5. The month-over-month jump in the index points to a marked improvement in consumer sentiment, backed by solid labor market indicators. A separate jump of about 8% in the Expectations Index, reaching 89.1, underscores consumer optimism regarding the near-term economic outlook.

An elevated consumer confidence index often signals stronger spending habits. In September, consumer spending rose, contributing to a Gross Domestic Product that was largely buoyed by consumption in the third quarter. For retailers, this is a green light for increased activity and revenue growth, as a confident consumer is more likely to make purchases. In the context of a highly competitive holiday shopping season, companies could experience positive momentum if confidence translates to real spending at checkout.

The National Retail Federation (“NRF”) projects that holiday sales will increase between 2.5% and 3.5%. The NRF estimates total sales during the November-December period to be between $979.5 billion and $989 billion.

Past-Year Stock Price Performance of TGT, BOOT, COST & ANF

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4 Top Retail Stocks

Target: Focus to Create One-Stop Shopping Destination

Target is enhancing its market presence by focusing on innovation and operational efficiency. The retailer's integration of physical stores with a robust digital platform creates a seamless shopping experience, making it convenient for customers to access a wide range of products. With a diverse assortment that spans both discretionary and essential categories, Target is adeptly navigating shifting consumer preferences. The company's proactive pricing strategy, aimed at attracting budget-conscious shoppers, is supported by its loyalty program, Target Circle, which fosters customer engagement and retention. These initiatives, combined with investment in AI technology, make the stock a compelling option for long-term investors.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Target’s current financial-year earnings per share (EPS) suggests growth of 6.7% from the year-ago reported figure. This Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 20.3%, on average. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Target Corporation Stock Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Target Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Target Corporation Quote

Boot Barn Holdings: A Diverse Product Portfolio

Boot Barn Holdings’ diverse product offerings, which include western wear, boots and outdoor apparel, align well with seasonal trends and attract a broader customer base. The company’s continued investment in enhancing the omnichannel shopping experience allows customers to transition seamlessly between online and physical stores. Targeted marketing campaigns designed to resonate with consumers, along with the introduction of exclusive product lines, distinguish Boot Barn from its competitors. Customer loyalty programs incentivize repeat purchases, while a recovering economy fosters increased consumer confidence and discretionary spending, creating an ideal environment for sales growth.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Boot Barn Holdings’ current financial-year sales and EPS suggests growth of 13.9% and 13%, respectively, from the year-ago reported figures. This Zacks Rank #1 company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 6.8%, on average.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. Stock Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. Quote

Costco: Leveraging Membership Model for Success

Costco has been navigating the market’s ups and downs pretty well. Strategic investments, a customer-centric approach, merchandise initiatives and an emphasis on memberships have been this discount retailer’s primary strengths. Costco's distinctive membership business model and pricing power set it apart from traditional players. Through a calculated approach that involves identifying untapped markets and tailoring offerings to meet customer preferences, Costco has managed to deepen its roots.

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Costco’s current financial-year sales and EPS implies growth of 7.5% and 10.2%, respectively, from the year-ago period’s actuals. This Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) company has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 2%, on average.

Costco Wholesale Corporation Stock Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Costco Wholesale Corporation price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Costco Wholesale Corporation Quote

Abercrombie & Fitch: Brand Visibility & Global Expansion

Abercrombie & Fitch stands out as a strong investment choice. The company excels in integrating digital and physical retail channels, offering a seamless shopping experience and driving higher customer satisfaction and loyalty. Strategic marketing initiatives, particularly targeted campaigns in key markets, have been effective in boosting brand visibility and customer acquisition. The introduction of innovative product lines meets specific customer needs and broadens the brand's appeal. Abercrombie & Fitch’s regional operating model, with a focus on the Americas, the EMEA (Europe, the Middle East and Africa) and the APAC (Asia-Pacific), provides a solid foundation for global expansion.

This leading, global, omnichannel specialty retailer of apparel and accessories for men, women and kids has a trailing four-quarter earnings surprise of 28%, on average. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Abercrombie & Fitch’s current financial-year sales and EPS suggests growth of 13% and 63.4% from the year-ago period. The company carries a Zacks Rank #2.

Abercrombie & Fitch Company Stock Price, Consensus and EPS Surprise

Abercrombie & Fitch Company price-consensus-eps-surprise-chart | Abercrombie & Fitch Company Quote