Major blow for Grainne Seoige ahead of the general election

The latest opinion poll for Galway West shows TV broadcaster Grainne Seoige who is running for Fianna Fail, on just 7% of votes.

Her running mate John Connolly is also on 7% while Fine Gael's two candidates Sean Kyne and Hildegarde Naughton are on 10% and 13% respectively with Catherine Connolly, Independent also on 13%.

At the time of polling on Monday 11th and Tuesday 12th November, sixteen candidates had declared for the five-seater constituency. The quota for election is 17%.

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On this showing Fine Gael have benefited from the change in leadership under Simon Harris with a very strong possibility of two seats for Fine Gael in Galway West for candidates Hildegarde Naughton and Seán Kyne. Hildegarde Naughton is on 13 per cent and Seán Kyne on 10 per cent. Unlike other constituencies, both Fine Gael candidates are experienced campaigners. Fine Gael local vote management also appears to be working, with both candidates transferring well to each other.

Long-serving Fianna Fáil TD, Éamon Ó Cuív is not contesting this election. In 2020, the Fianna Fáil vote totalled 23 per cent. Where Ó Cuív’s vote will go is a question everyone is asking.

Fianna Fáil’s support has dropped by almost 10 per cent in this TG4/Ipsos B&A poll. Both candidates are neck and neck with John Connolly on 7 per cent and Gráinne Seoige also on 7 per cent. However, Gráinne Seoige appears to be more transfer friendly.

Sinn Féin’s Mairéad Farrell is on 9 per cent and is in contention to keep her seat but is well short of the quota and will rely on transfers. Independent Ireland’s Noel Thomas, formerly a Fianna Fáil councillor is pushing for a seat, with 8 per cent support in this poll.

The other candidates in Galway West are Pauline O’Reilly (Green Party) 5 per cent, Helen Ogbu (Labour) 4 per cent, Eibhlín Seoighthe (Social Democrats) 3 per cent and Mike Cubbard (Non-Party) 3 per cent.

Gráinne Seoige faces a battle to hang onto Fianna Fáil’s seat in Galway West according to the latest general election odds at BoyleSports.

The retirement of Eamon O’Cuiv has thrown the race wide open. While the broadcaster remains odds-on at 4/7, she was considered a much more certain 1/5 shot just a week ago to win one of five seats up for grabs in the constituency.

Connolly, Grealish, Naughton and the other sitting TD, Sinn Féin’s Mairéad Farrell, are all also odds-on to prevail, but a crowded betting heat also hands fighting chances to former Fianna Fáil councillor Noel Thomas (now an Independent, 4/6), Fine Gael’s Seán Kyne (4/7) and Fianna Fáil’s other contender John Connolly (5/6).

A new Irish Times/Ipsos poll has indicated a five-point lead in the popularity stakes for Fine Gael, but the betting on who will win most seats in the election is much closer with Fianna Fáil hot on their heels, while one-time favourites Sinn Fein are now rated 6/1 underdogs to top the seat count.

Lawrence Lyons, spokesperson for BoyleSports, said: “Opinion polls are starting to provide an interesting picture and no more so in Galway West, where betting is on a knife edge. Gráinne Seoige finds herself in a crowded race to get over the line and the Fianna Fáil seat there looks much more in play than it once was.”