General Election 2024: How Gerry 'The Monk' Hutch's run could impact Dublin Central candidates

Despite initial scepticism about his campaign, Gerry “The Monk” Hutch appears to have confirmed his intention to contest the next general election.

After being released on a €100,000 bail bond earlier this week, a spokesman for the Canary Islands High Court of Justice told the Irish Mirror that Hutch’s passport has not been revoked and he is free to return to Ireland to run in the general election, which is expected to take place on Friday November 29.

Dublin Central is shaping up to be one of the most exciting constituencies during the election.

READ MORE: Gerry 'The Monk' Hutch free to return to Ireland to run in general election

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But who are the leading runners and riders whose prospects may be damaged by The Monk?

There are four seats in Dublin Central, with Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe, Sinn Féin’s Mary Lou McDonald, Gary Gannon of the Social Democrats and Green Party TD Neasa Hourigan seeking to retain their seats.

Mary Lou McDonald - Sinn Féin

The Sinn Féin leader was nominated on the first count in the 2020 election with nearly double the quota.

It is hard to see Mary Lou McDonald, a TD since 2011, losing her seat. But it is also hard to see her getting 11,000 first-preference votes again. She could also lose some of the “anti-establishment” vote to The Monk, but not badly enough to be dumped from the Dáil.

Janice Boylan - Sinn Féin

It is also growing increasingly unlikely that Sinn Féin will return a second TD in Dublin Central, and Janice Boylan, a Dublin City Councillor, is likely to miss out.

Again, a loss of anti-establishment votes may have an impact.

Malachy Steenson - Independent

A Dublin City Councillor since June, Malachy Steenson could be one of the most impacted if The Monk runs in his area in the North Inner City.

The far-right candidate has spoken about immigration at length and also describes himself as a Republican.

While it was thought he would benefit from a new grá for independents, Hutch could absorb some of these votes.

Clare Daly - Independents4Change

Another Independent running in the constituency that could be impacted by Hutch’s run is former TD and MEP Clare Daly.

In addition to fighting for a portion of the independent vote, Ms Daly's inexperience in this constituency could further impact her campaign. She previously represented Dublin Fingal.

No impact:

Many of the other candidates are unlikely to be affected by The Monk’s Bid.

This involves two sitting TDs, Gary Gannon of the Social Democrats and Green Neasa Hourigan, as well as Labour candidate Marie Sherlock, will all have to fight to get seats. But any losses certainly would not be because of The Monk.

Similarly, itis hard to see Fine Gael’s Paschal Donohoe, a member of the “law and order” party, being in any way impacted by Hutch's candidacy.

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