'Voter Is Keeping Centre On Tenterhooks'

'If you want to win you need to perform.'
'Governments have found a way to buck anti-incumbency, but one policy intervention will not pay in all elections.'

IMAGE: Jharkhand Mukti Morcha leader Hemant Soren, his wife Kalpana Murmu Soren, Jharkhand Congress in-charge Ghulam Ahmad Mir and other leaders at a press conference in Ranchi, November 23, 2024, after the INDIA bloc won the state assembly elections. Photograph: ANI Photo

"It is a good sign for Indian democracy that the political leadership in the Centre and states is doing something for women that is making them come out of the four walls of the house and vote according to their choice," says Dr Alok Gupta, head of the department of political science, Central University of Jharkhand.

"Maybe they are a vote bank today, but slowly and gradually, they will break the cycle and move forward. Once the 33% reservation becomes a reality, women will be in a position to call the shots," Professor Gupta tells Rediff.com's Archana Masih about the verdict in Jharkhand.

What accounts for the Hemant Soren-led INDIA bloc winning decisively despite a strong BJP campaign in Jharkhand?

The BJP's main electoral narrative was that they will throw out the infiltrators. This narrative did not work for them.

The BJP roped in leaders like Shivraj Singh Chauhan, Himanta Biswa Sarma, Yogi Adityanath, but its electoral management was not very good.

The other rhetoric was roti beti mati ki pukar which Hemant Soren was also talking about; he had already delivered some part of the roti and beti issue.

The Maiya Samman Yojana worked in the JMM's favour. As per statistical figures 48 lakh (4.8 million) women out of 2 crore and 68 lakh (26.8 million) voters were being accorded this scheme -- 1/5th of the voters were being catered to by this scheme.

Hemant Soren knew very well that schemes like Ladali Behna Yojana in MP known by different names in other states had paid off in these states.

He was quite sure that if this was pursued aggressively, it would pay off for the JMM too. This was another factor that went in favour of the Hemant Sarkar.

Though the BJP roped in many stalwarts, its electoral management was not very good.

They talked about roti beti mati ki pukar while the Hemant sarkar was trying to project that 1 lakh plus crores of rupees was due to Jharkhand which the Centre had not paid and people, especially in rural Jharkhand, believed it.

In the cities, the voting percentage was very low. It did not cross more than 50% to 52%, while in rural areas the voting was very high 78% to 79%.

Hemant had excellent outreach in the rural areas which proved beneficial to him.

One more factor was the imprisonment of Hemant Soren, a tribal leader whose father is seen as responsible for the creation of Jharkhand. His family is into politics and has a good grasp on the pulse of the people.

IMAGE: Hemant Soren tweeted this picture, extending his best wishes to the JMM and the INDIA alliance on the eve of the vote count for the state assembly elections, November 23, 2024. Photograph: ANI Photo

Why did the campaign rhetoric of illegal immigration not pay off for the BJP?

The Hemant Sarkar was competent enough to raise the question about who is responsible for the infiltrators, if at all they were there.

He went to campaign with the map of India and tried to project that border management was the task of the central government. Therefore, how could Bangladeshis or Rohingyas cross the border and enter the state?

He repeatedly told people that securing the border was not a state subject and the BJP was trying to implicate him. He said that they should have managed infiltration on the border itself and the BJP's inability to do so shows the failure of the central government.

How big a role did his imprisonment play in gaining voters' sympathy and their vote?

All along the campaign, he was saying that the BJP was trying to scuttle him and the JMM by putting him behind bars.

People were simple enough to believe that. No government is perfect. Hemant Soren has done a lot of work, but has had some costly failures as well, like the crime rates, land scams etc,< but in rural Jharkhand among the poor and the tribals, he has worked a lot and that has worked in his favour.

IMAGE: Kalpana Murmu Soren with JMM supporters after winning the Gandey seat. Photograph: ANI Photo

How has his wife's role after his imprisonment contributed to the party's fine performance?

She is a simple lady and had good access to the people. She has worked very hard since her husband's imprisonment. She reached out to the people and played a decisive role.

What lessons does the verdict in Jharkhand have for the BJP?

It is a lesson that only prachar and prasar [campaigning and publicity] will not work for long. They have to deliver something concrete on the ground.

Symbolic gestures like making a tribal the President of India and giving some other positions to few tribals here and there will not help win elections until they deliver on the ground.

IMAGE: Hemant Soren congratulates his wife Kalpana Soren on winning the Gandey seat in the state assembly elections at Ranchi's Birsa Munda international airport. Photograph: ANI Photo

Why has the BJP not been very successful in capturing the tribal vote in Jharkhand?

They have to traverse an extra mile to make a mark among the tribal people. Only speaking about roti beti mati is not going to convince them.

Will the success of women oriented schemes in various states lead to such policies becoming an all-India phenomenon?

This is a good sign for Indian democracy that the political leadership in the Centre and states is doing something for women that is making them come out of the four walls of the house and vote according to their choice.

Maybe they are a vote bank today, but slowly and gradually, they will break the cycle and move forward. Once the 33% reservation becomes a reality, women will be in a position to call the shots.

IMAGE: Kalpana Murmu Soren poses for a picture after casting her vote for the Jharkhand assembly elections at Gandey in Giridih, November 20, 2024. Photograph: ANI Photo

How does this victory strengthen the JMM which will form the government for a third time?

Hemant Soren will have to deliver on his poll promises and ensure they are not jumlas. They should respect the massive majority mandate and not let it go to their head.

Rather than indulging in the politics of confrontation, they should work in the spirit of cooperation with the Centre.

If he wants smooth sailing, he needs to develop a mechanism to work with the Centre.

IMAGE: Hemant Soren and Kalpana Murmu Soren meets his father and Jharkhand Mukti Morcha supremo Shibu Soren and his mother Roopai Soren. Photograph: ANI Photo

What is the larger pan-Indian message from this election result?

The BJP has swept one state and lost another.

The voters have sent a message that they are voting on the performance of the party. This is a good sign for Indian democracy that it won't be governed by one party and one political party can't be assured that they can sweep the nation.

The Indian voter is keeping the central government on tenterhooks that if you want to win you need to perform.

Voters need all the basic amenities -- roti, kapda, makan, shiksha, swasthya, suraksha, bijli, sadak, pani, nyaya.

Has anti-incumbency ceased to be a factor? What are the reasons for incumbent governments bucking anti-incumbency?

Governments in power know that there would be anti-incumbency when they go into elections. They try to find ways like Ladli Behen Yojana, Maiya Samman Yojana and Hemant Soren learnt from such policy interventions to overcome the anti-incumbency factor.

Governments have found a way to buck anti-incumbency, but one policy intervention will not pay in all elections.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com