Kejriwal's Resignation: A Master Stroke

With Atishi at the helm it will not be easy for the BJP to continue using the LG's office and the bureaucracy as political instruments to hinder governance and thereby provoke the electorate's ire against the AAP, expects Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay.

IMAGE: Aam Aadmi Party national Convener Arvind Kejriwal addresses AAP workers after being released from Tihar jail, September 13, 2024. Photograph: ANI Photo

More than a decade ago in 2012-2013, when Arvind Kejriwal along with a bunch of associates, transited from the idealistic pursuits of civil society, to the rough-and-tumble of practical politics, he picked out many a leaf from Narendra Modi's playbook.

Still chief minister of Gujarat and waging a battle within his party and the Sangh Parivar to be anointed as the party's prime ministerial candidate, Modi reveled in being in the news.

"No publicity is bad publicity," he averred, for he believed, as he told me when I was interviewing him for his biography I wrote back then, "If I am criticised all the time, the janta will think that this man must have done something good, otherwise why he is being attacked all the time."

Kejriwal too realised at the onset of his political charge that being the cynosure of all newsrooms was a good tactic to enter the mind spaces of people.

Kejriwal certainly did not choose the date, September 13, when the Supreme Court granted him regular bail.

The date was close to an event planned by Prime Minister Modi for several months -- marking the first hundred of his government for the third time.

Unless the Aam Aadmi Party leader made a dramatic move, the news cycle would revolve around Modi and the government and Kejriwal's release and later events would get deprioritised.

But he had other plans and used the apex court's order, which barred him from visiting the office of the chief minister and even the Delhi secretariat.

Kejriwal was further directed not to sign official files unless it was required and necessary for obtaining clearance or approval of Delhi Lieutenant Governor V K Saxena.

Although bail was welcome and would enable him to campaign for the party in Haryana and Delhi's impending elections, Kejriwal would have remained a CM in name only had he not made a counter-move.

For maximum impact and grabbing the headlines, this had to be made right away.

Following the Supreme Court order, Kejriwal had two choices. One, he could continue the Constitutional impasse that besieged Delhi's governance since his arrest.

He could was still remain CM, but without the job effectively.

As past experience underscored, any stalemate between the elected government and the LG had the potential to severely hinder functioning of the state government.

Saxena, in such a situation, would have been able to corner the high moral ground by claiming that since the court forbade Kejriwal from discharging his duties and functions as chief minister, it was in the interest of people of Delhi that he stepped down and ensured normalcy to return.

Implications of this were unknown and few thought that he would relinquish authority because Kejriwal had not followed convention and remained CM after arrest.

IMAGE: Sunita and Arvind Kejriwal pray at the Hanuman temple in New Delhi, September 14, 2024, after being released from prison. Photograph: ANI Photo

The other path open for Kejriwal was to bite the bullet, take the tough call and put in his papers.

Practically no one anticipated, among adversaries in the Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress, as well as within his own party, that he would take such a step and announce his decision within 24 hours of release.

Eventually, quite like Modi, he made the unilateral announcement without any consultations within the party.

It was nothing but a stunning declaration when he said that both he and former deputy chief minister Manish Sisodia would not occupy the chairs of power till the people of Delhi say they are honest by re-electing the AAP.

With this decision, Kejriwal has made a strategic transition from the political stage of Delhi to the national one.

Even in the likelihood of the AAP returning to office with a majority, in the polls either alongside Maharashtra and Jharkhand, or separately in February, it is unlikely that Kejriwal would be able to return as CM.

Although he has said that he would remain out of office till the people re-elected and thereby clearing him of charges against him, the Supreme Court order preventing him from functioning as CM would still be effective.

Even if this becomes legally permissible, Kejriwal may still want to stay out of the CM's office.

As it would be a similar situation for Manish Sisodia, it is highly likely that Atishi would continue to hold the office.

IMAGE: Arvind Kejriwal with AAP leaders Manish Sisodia and Sanjay Singh addresses party supporters in New Delhi, September 15, 2024. Photograph: Shrikant Singh/ANI Photo

Kejriwal has actually made his opening move for the next parliamentary polls, either held in due course in 2029 or earlier.

In the event of the AAP being re-elected in Delhi, it is likely that the party would begin forays in states neighbouring the capital and those where it has marked a presence, like in Gujarat and Goa.

It is true that AAP is going to ensure cordial ties with the INDIA bloc of parties, even others outside the grouping, because Kejriwal would require all the support from them in his legal battle with the Centre, the last of which has certainly not been seen despite the apex court granting him bail.

But, as the collapse of the efforts to forge an alliance with the Congress in Haryana demonstrated, the two parties are likely to approach state elections separately.

It is evident that in time, several Opposition leaders will become rivals to one another in the post-Modi era.

Contests are natural among leaders, ranging from Rahul Gandhi, Akhilesh Yadav, Mamata Banerjee, M K Stalin and of course Kejriwal.

This rivalry will become more evident when Indian politics become further multipolar than now.

The race among them to emerge as the principal challenger to the BJP will intensify in times to come, especially in the event of the weakening of today's dominant party or if Modi's hold on the BJP and the government weakens.

When Kejriwal decided that his continuing as CM would be counterproductive for the party and harm its prospects in the impending polls, he would have eventually zeroed in on Atishi and not other colleagues, with an eye of neutralising a possible change of leadership by the BJP.

For the past several weeks, speculation has been rife that the BJP was likely to name a charismatic chief ministerial candidate well before the elections.

Among others, Smriti Irani's name too was doing the rounds.

IMAGE: AAP leader and Delhi CM-designate Atishi stakes her claim to form the government with Lieutenant Governor V K Saxena, September 17, 2024. Photograph: ANI Photo

By nominating Atishi, Kejriwal has virtually counterbalanced two potential hardships.

Firstly, Delhi governance, which got somewhat derailed after the travails of the AAP started with the BJP harshly pursuing the alleged liquor scam, can be put back on the rails.

Atishi, despite not having long experience in governance, has displayed a bright and sharp mind, academically competent while remaining affable, so required to establish a basic level of courteous ties with the state's bureaucracy.

Saxena too will find it tougher to deal with a person who does not have a public image of being hard-nosed and brusque in dealings with others like Kejriwal.

In the months leading to the polls, Delhi's governance has to be smoother than what was under Kejriwal.

With Atishi at the helm it will not be easy for the BJP to continue using the LG's office and the bureaucracy as political instruments to hinder governance and thereby provoke the electorate's ire against the AAP.

But for that, the new CM has to be strategically smart. Being a woman hands her an advantage as it would be easier for Atishi to play the victim card.

With her in office, the BJP would have to redraw its strategy in its attempt to break a 26-year-old voodoo and come back to power in Delhi, which has eluded them since Sushma Swaraj failed to retain power in 1998.

Nilanjan Mukhopadhyay is an author and journalist based in Delhi-NCR.
His latest book is The Demolition, The Verdict and The Temple: The Definitive Book on the Ram Mandir Project.
He is also the author of Narendra Modi: The Man, The Times.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com