'Omar Will Be Sure Shot Chief Minister'

'INDIA will easily cross 50 seats out of 90 in Jammu and Kashmir.'

IMAGE: Omar Abdullah hits the campaign trail in Budgam. Photographs: Umar Ganie for Rediff.com

Twenty four years is a long time in life to erase memories, but for every voter in Budgam, November 3, 2000, remains unforgettable.

It was as if their life came to a standstill on that day, never to become the same.

That fateful day, when Shia leader Aga Syed Mehdi was traveling to Magam, a powerful IED blast blew his car into pieces -- with him inside.

Till date no one has been held accountable for the blast and the people of Budgam have not forgotten what happened to the leader they revered.

If you needed school admission for your child in Budgam, Mehdi was the saviour.

If your child was wrongly detained by police in a terrorism case, Mehdi was the saviour.

If your child was being harassed by militants to join their ranks, Mehdi was the saviour.

If you didn't have a water pipe connection in your home, Mehdi was the saviour.

"Mehdi was like a one-stop solution for the people of Budgam. He saved us from every wrath during the militancy days of Kashmir. He used to be in the forefront and never allowed any of the Budgam residents to suffer," recalls Syed Ali, a shopkeeper in Budgam town. "He was the messiah."

"I have never seen a man like him. Humble and always ready to help people in need," adds Sajjad Hussain, standing alongside Ali in his shop.

After his death in 2002, his son Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi entered politics and won the election from the Budgam assembly constituency consecutively from 2002 till 2014.

In 2024, Ruhullah won the Srinagar Lok Sabha constituency on a National Conference ticket, leaving the Budgam assembly vacant and for Omar Abdullah to contest as his second seat after Ganderbal.

Abdullah hurriedly arrived in Budgam on September 6, the last day of nominations, after he was challenged by jailed cleric Sarjan Barkati in Ganderbal as an Independent candidate.

"Omar feared loss in the assembly elections after having a bad experience in Baramulla against Engineer Rashid in the general elections. Engineer Rashid and Barkati's story is the same and Omar is worried if history will repeat itself in Ganderbal," says Mohammad Yusuf, a tailor in Budgam.

"But he will win for sure because the Mehdi family is with him. This assurance is more than enough for voters of Budgam like us," adds Yusuf, who too reveres Mehdi.

As you enter Budgam town, you are greeted by huge posters of Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. There are posters of Iran's late supreme leader Ayatollah Khomeini too.

There are Shia shrines spread across Budgam district, making it a unique place in Jammu and Kashmir which is a Sunni Muslim majority Union territory.

Like his father Mehdi, Ruhullah too is popular among the locals and this makes Omar confident that the Budgam seat is a sure shot victory for him.

"Everyone in Budgam knows Omar is piggybacking on Ruhullah and who in turn always rode on his father's popularity," says Ghulam Abbasi, a retired professor in Budgam.

"There are zero factories in Budgam, but no one thinks of these things when it comes to vote. For the last two decades only the 'Mehdi' factor works here. People of Budgam are mostly in farming or work in export oriented farm products and they know nothing will change here whoever gets elected," adds Professor Abbasi.

Budgam has a 30 to 40 percent population of Shia Muslims, and Omar is hoping that the Shia votes, which have always supported Ruhullah, will come to him this time.

Apart from which, there is, of course, Omar's charisma.

Huge crowds surround Omar wherever he goes and he makes it a point to shake hands with every person at every stop of the campaign.

"Omar Abdullah is a sure shot chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir. INDIA will easily cross 50 seats out of 90 in Jammu and Kashmir where you will also see a deputy chief minister from the Congress party," predicts Ghulam Mohammed Mir, the Congress's working district president in Budgam.

Asked what explains such huge crowds at Omar's meetings, Mir says, "People are happy because they feel for the first time Jammu and Kashmir's chief minister will be from Budgam."

The confidence over his victory is so sure that Omar has visited Budgam only once after filing his nomination.

He did one road show and wherever he went he was mobbed by voters.

In his speech at Budgam, Omar highlighted the fact that it is time for Kashmiris to unite and fight to restore Article 370 which was abrogated by the Narendra D Modi government on August 5, 2019.

Nurturing a constituency and then holding onto the turf for life is a sign of every astute Indian politician, but that is not the case with Omar Abdullah.

If Prime Minister Narendra D Modi has nurtured the Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency and won it thrice, Sharad Pawar -- who was Omar's local guardian when he studied at Mumbai's Sydenham college -- has nurtured the Baramati constituency in western Maharashtra and won the seat till he passed on the baton to his daughter Supriya Sule.

Historically, Ganderbal constituency is the stronghold of the Abdullah family. Omar's late grandfather Sheikh Abdullah represented it as did Omar's father Dr Farooq Abdullah.

Omar won Ganderbal in 2008 and became the youngest J&K chief minister at 38.

In the 2014 assembly elections, he was not sure of victory from Ganderbal and so contested from two other constituencies, Sonawar and Beerwah.

He lost from Sonawar and won from Beerwah, but his National Conference party could not form the government in J&K in 2014.

It was the BJP in alliance with the Peoples Democratic Party which formed the government with Mufti Mohammad Sayeed as chief minister.

Ten years later, when assembly elections are being held in Jammu and Kashmir, Omar moved back to Ganderbal but decided to also contest from Budgam at the last moment sensing defeat in Ganderbal.

"Omar has always been running from one constituency to another in his political career. He never did any good work in any of the constituency he represented. Therefore, he has come to take refuge in Budgam," says Aga Syed Muntazir, Omar's main PDP rival in Budgam.

"People of Budgam know this and will not vote for him. Omar Abdullah is a tourist in the Budgam constituency."

'My colleagues wanted to show that the National Conference is not fighting this election from a weak position, but a strong one,' Omar said while filing his nomination in Budgam. 'My contesting from two seats is not a sign of weakness, but strength, it is the proof of the NC's strength.'

"We are not like those who talked about 400 plus (seats) and then stopped at 240. I hope when the counting takes place, we will be successful."