'America Is In For A Period Of Extended Domestic Turmoil'

'Trump's disregard for norms and institutions could prove very costly for America's social fabric.'

IMAGE: USA President-elect Donald Trump meets with Republican members of the US House of Representatives on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, November 13, 2024. Photograph: Brian Snyder/Reuters

"Many people expected Trump might be disruptive for India but, in fact, while there was a lot of volatility and some regression (on climate and trade, most notably), the defense and security partnership rose to new heights," Dr Milan Vaishnav, Director and Senior Fellow South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for Peace in Washington, DC, tells Rediff.com's Archana Masih.

IMAGE: US President Joe Biden meets with Trump in the Oval Office at the White House in Washington, DC, November 13, 2024. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Obama, Trump, Biden -- what would be the imprint of each of these leaders as far as India-US ties go?

The first thing to note, of course, is that there's been a quarter-century upswing in USA-India relations.

This deepening strategic partnership dates to the George W Bush administration and the turn of the 21st century.

What we have seen since is steady, if non-linear, progress.

Recall, Obama was president when Modi won the 2014 election and took office as prime minister.

Because of the 2002 Gujarat riots, the USA had very little interaction with Modi for over a decade.

Obama normalised relations with Modi but went beyond that; the real contours of a 'strategic convergence' in the Indo-Pacific came into view during his presidency.

Many people expected Trump might be disruptive for India but, in fact, while there was a lot of volatility and some regression (on climate and trade, most notably), the defense and security partnership rose to new heights.

It was during the Trump years that the USA provided key inputs during the 2020 LAC crisis with China.

Under Biden, a new vertical has been added to bilateral relations on critical and emerging technology.

This is not about one deliverable or deal but advancing a new framework for cooperation across a range of sectors, from defense to space to AI.

IMAGE: Trump at his meeting with Republican members of the US House of Representatives on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, November 13, 2024. Photograph: Brian Snyder/Reuters

How different will a resurgent Trump -- riding high on a historic, convincing win -- be in his second term as compared to the first?

I think the volatility and uncertainty will remain. That is part of this president's style. But I think there are two big differences.

First, the Trump camp has spent the last four years developing a list of individuals who are seen as personally loyal to Trump.

This will be the number one criterion for a personnel appointment under this new administration.

This means there will be less room for 'establishment Republicans' who were often seen as the 'adults in the room' between 2017 and 2020.

Second, I think there is a desire to fulfill an unfinished agenda on trade and immigration, in particular.

Given India's own demographics and its economic profile, there's a decent chance that it gets caught in the crossfire even if it is not the primary target.

IMAGE: Mike Waltz and Marco Rubio, who Trump has picked as his national security adviser and secretary of state. Photograph: Kind courtesy Mike Waltz/X and Marco Rubio/X

How do you assess his first few days as president-elect in terms of the appointments he has made, people he has spoken to, announcements he has made and the transition as it takes place?

I would say that many people were pleasantly surprised by the announcement that Representative Mike Waltz will be Trump's national security advisor.

While he is a very hawkish Republican member of Congress (especially as regards China), I think he would be classified as within the mainstream. Same for Senator Marco Rubio, the secretary of state nominee.

The backlash to the leak around Rubio's appointment within Trump world was quite harsh, so it is not entirely clear whether that appointment will stick.

Again, Rubio is a very conservative senator but one who is at least linked to the old guard Republican party even as he's distanced himself from it.

I think the last 24-48 hours have been more alarming to people, in terms of names of people being floated for cabinet positions who are seen as pure loyalists.

But this is a moving target so we really can't make an assessment until we see a more complete slate of nominees.

IMAGE: Khalistani militant Gurpatwant Singh Pannun seen during an interview in New York City, October 18, 2024. Photograph: Shannon Stapleton/Reuters

Tough tariff policy, visa and immigration policies, Panun allegations are some points of tension between the countries -- how do you see these playing out for India in the next four years?

I do think the trade and immigration issues will be real. We don't know exactly what Trump might do.

He's talked about targeted tariffs on China but also about broad, across-the-board tariffs on all imported manufactured goods.

The latter would be a direct hit to India but even the former could be problematic if they raise the cost of intermediate components/inputs that Indians require for finished goods.

On immigration, I think the immediate focus will be on illegal immigration but many of Trump's inner circle possess detailed plans for limiting legal immigration.

Even if they do not take legislative action, there are several things that the executive can do in terms of restricting visas for students, skilled workers, etc or increasing wait times and scrutiny for green cards and those who aspire for permanent residency.

On Pannun, this has been an irritant, but the Biden administration actually went out of its way to make sure it did not take over the relationship.

I think they've managed to compartmentalize the fallout.

Now the Trump justice department could drop the entire prosecution, but I suspect they might use it as a bargaining chip to get India to come to the table and make concessions on unrelated issues (for instance, on trade or intellectual property).

IMAGE: Prime Minister Narendra D Modi with Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, October 23, 2024. Photograph: China Daily/Reuters

How will the US-India-China triangle shape geopolitics under Trump, especially in view of the recent border breakthrough in Eastern Ladakh?

Well, I think the Indian establishment is quite heartened by many of Trump's early appointments insofar as they share a skepticism of China and its ambitions in Asia and beyond.

I expect there will be continued willingness in Washington to work with India to help push back against Chinese expansionism, and this includes closer military cooperation and intelligence sharing.

India has made its case that it is a "frontline state" when it comes to containing China and that view is well socialized in Washington.

I think many in Trump's foreign policy orbit understand that India's military is staring its Chinese counterpart eye-to-eye and does not have the privilege of hiding behind oceans or distant geography.

IMAGE: When then president Trump met Xi during the G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, June 29, 2019. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Knowing Trump's unpredictability is there a possibility of a repair of US-China relations and what impact is this likely to have on India?

One can never rule this out, but I think Trump comes back with a renewed sense of purpose in terms of pushing back on China.

America's coercive economic statecraft under Trump achieved limited returns, at least according to many independent estimates.

I think that has motivated Trump to double down this time around.

Where the uncertainty comes in is regarding Trump's willingness to show that he can be a deal-maker.

When he meets Xi Jinping, there's always the chance he comes away with a sense that he can make a deal and put up some quick wins on the board.

It is too early to tell, but Trump oscillates between his instincts as a hardliner and a dealmaker.

It is impossible to predict which one will prevail at any given moment in time.

What changes do you see in America in the next four years? How will Trump alter America by the end of his term?

I think we're in for a period of extended domestic turmoil.

If Trump implements many of his campaign promises, they will be felt far and wide -- there will be economic ramifications (tariffs are inflationary), social ramifications (family separation and forced deportations), and political ones (investigations or persecution of Opposition figures or civil society organizations).

Trump's disregard for norms and institutions could prove very costly for America's social fabric.

IMAGE: Trump and Vivek Ramaswamy attend a campaign event in Las Vegas, Nevada, October 24, 2024. Photograph: Eloisa Lopez/Reuters

Who are the Indian Americans likely to feature in the Trump administration? The Carnegie survey revealed that Indian Americans did not think favourably of prominent Indian American Republicans.

Trump has already announced that his former UN ambassador and sometimes rival Nikki Haley will not be getting a cabinet position.

He has named Vivek Ramaswamy, another Republican presidential candidate, as co-head (with Elon Musk) of a new governmental blue-ribbon commission to make government more efficient.

Another person we will likely see named in the coming days is Kash Patel, a firebrand Trump loyalist who held several senior staff positions in the first Trump administration. He is rumored to be in the running for multiple intelligence/national security posts.

Regarding the survey, Indian Americans remain closely affiliated with the Democratic party even as they have tilted toward the Republicans over the past four years.

In 2020, Indian Americans broke 70:20 for Biden; in 2024, they backed Harris by a roughly 60:30 margin.

So, while there's been a clear softening of support for the Democrats, there is still a great reservoir of support for the party.

Given these facts, therefore, it is not surprising most Indian Americans do not rate Indian American Republican officials very highly.

For many in the community, the Republican party is still out of sync with their preferred policy positions.

What is attracting younger men to the Republican party? The survey showed an uptick for Republican support, is this going to gain more strength during the Trump years?

This was the most interesting finding in our survey, I think.

We found that the bulk of the increased support for Trump among Indian Americans is due to the shifting preferences of Indian American men under-40, especially those born in the United States.

To be honest, we don't know definitively why this shift occurred. But we do know that surveys of other racial/ethnic minorities have picked up similar trends.

There are at least three hypotheses out there.

The first is that young men are feeling increasingly alienated and anxious about social mobility, providing for a family, and ticking what are seen as standard 'male head of household' boxes.

The second is misogyny or a discomfort with a female commander-in-chief (in this case, Kamala Harris).

The third is about information silos; there have been a flurry of articles and columns about the information sources young American men have come to rely on.

These sources -- podcasts, blogs, social media accounts, etc -- are playing up many of the anxieties Trump has harped on, whether it be illegal immigration, a glum economy, or a general 'femininization' of society in America.

We can't be sure which one of these is dominant -- it could be all three -- but it's possible there is some truth to all of them.

Feature Presentation: Ashish Narsale/Rediff.com