USD/CNH can continue to rebound – UOB Group

The US Dollar (USD) could continue to rebound; there does not appear to be enough momentum for it to threaten the resistance at 7.0350. In the longer run, downward momentum is beginning to slow; if USD breaches 7.0350, it would suggest that it could trade in a range for a period, UOB Group FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Downward momentum is beginning to slow

24-HOUR VIEW: “We expected USD to edge lower yesterday. We were incorrect, as instead of edging lower, USD rebounded strongly to 7.0120. The strong rebound has resulted in an increase in momentum. Today, USD could continue to rebound, but it does not appear to have enough momentum to threaten the strong resistance at 7.0350. Note that there is another resistance level at 7.0240. Support is at 6.9980, a breach of 6.9850 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have held a negative USD view for more than a week now (as annotated in the chart below). In our most recent narrative from last Friday (27 Sep, spot at 6.9810), we indicated that ‘the recent price action continues to suggest USD weakness, albeit likely at a slower pace.’ We added, ‘the levels to monitor are 6.9400 and 6.9200, and a breach of 7.0350 (‘strong resistance’ level) would mean that USD is not weakening further.’ USD has not been able to make any further headway on the downside. Downward momentum is beginning to slow, and if it breaches 7.0350 (no change in ‘strong resistance’ level), it would suggest that it could trade in a range for a period.”

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