USD/INR extends upside as traders brace for Indian GDP data

• The Indian Rupee weakens near a record low in Friday’s Asian session. 
• A negative trend in domestic equities and rising USD demand from importers weigh on the INR. 
• India’s Federal Fiscal Deficit for October and GDP growth data for Q2 FY25 will be released later on Friday. 

The Indian Rupee (INR) extends its decline near its all-time low on Friday. The rise in US Treasury bond yields, the month-end US Dollar (USD) demand and Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) selling domestic equities exert some selling pressure on the local currency. Despite these challenges, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to routinely intervene in the foreign exchange (forex) market by selling USD to prevent the INR from depreciating amidst global volatility.

Later on Friday, India's Federal Fiscal Deficit for October and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth data for the July-September 2024 quarter (Q2 FY25) will be in the spotlight. If the GDP report shows a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could help limit the INR's losses. 

Indian Rupee seems vulnerable amid multiple challenges

• Foreign investors withdrew nearly $1.4 billion from Indian equities on Thursday, preliminary exchange data showed, spurring a 1.5% fall in the BSE Sensex index. These investors took out $11 billion from Indian equities last month. 
• India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is estimated to align with the RBI's target of 7.0% for the second quarter of FY25.
• India's economy is likely to grow at its slowest pace in one and a half years in the three months to the end of September as weak consumption offsets a strong recovery in government spending, according to a Reuters poll.
• The RBI is set to hold interest rates on December 6 due to a sharp rise in consumer inflation, per Reuters. 
• The markets now see nearly a 66.5% chance that the Fed will cut rates by a quarter point in December, up from 55.7% before the PCE data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

USD/INR maintains the bullish sentiment in the longer term

The Indian Rupee softens on the day. The strong uptrend of the USD/INR pair prevails, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily timeframe. The 14-day Relative Strength Index stands above the midline near 62.90, suggesting that the support is likely to hold rather than break. 

In the bullish case, the crucial resistance level emerges at the 84.50-84.55 region. Consistent trading above this level could attract enough momentum traders to push USD/INR to the 85.00 psychological mark. 

On the flip side, sustained trading below the lower limit of the trend channel of 84.27 could open the possibility of a retest of 83.96, the 100-day EMA. A break below the mentioned level could lead to a downside breakout. The next support level to watch is 83.65, the low of August 1. 

Indian economy FAQs

How does the Indian economy impact the Indian Rupee?

The Indian economy has averaged a growth rate of 6.13% between 2006 and 2023, which makes it one of the fastest growing in the world. India’s high growth has attracted a lot of foreign investment. This includes Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into physical projects and Foreign Indirect Investment (FII) by foreign funds into Indian financial markets. The greater the level of investment, the higher the demand for the Rupee (INR). Fluctuations in Dollar-demand from Indian importers also impact INR.

What is the impact of Oil prices on the Rupee?

India has to import a great deal of its Oil and gasoline so the price of Oil can have a direct impact on the Rupee. Oil is mostly traded in US Dollars (USD) on international markets so if the price of Oil rises, aggregate demand for USD increases and Indian importers have to sell more Rupees to meet that demand, which is depreciative for the Rupee.

How does inflation in India impact the Rupee?

Inflation has a complex effect on the Rupee. Ultimately it indicates an increase in money supply which reduces the Rupee’s overall value. Yet if it rises above the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) 4% target, the RBI will raise interest rates to bring it down by reducing credit. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (the difference between interest rates and inflation) strengthen the Rupee. They make India a more profitable place for international investors to park their money. A fall in inflation can be supportive of the Rupee. At the same time lower interest rates can have a depreciatory effect on the Rupee.

How does seasonal US Dollar demand from importers and banks impact the Rupee?

India has run a trade deficit for most of its recent history, indicating its imports outweigh its exports. Since the majority of international trade takes place in US Dollars, there are times – due to seasonal demand or order glut – where the high volume of imports leads to significant US Dollar- demand. During these periods the Rupee can weaken as it is heavily sold to meet the demand for Dollars. When markets experience increased volatility, the demand for US Dollars can also shoot up with a similarly negative effect on the Rupee.

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