USD/JPY extends correction to near 152.00 on Japan’s intervention alert

• USD/JPY slides further to near 152.00 as the Japanese yen strengthens after Japana Kato warned of possible intervention.
• The US Dollar tries to resume its upside trend on Trump policy optimism.
• On Thursday, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 bps to 4.50%-4.75%.

The USD/JPY pair falls further to near 152.00 in European trading hours on Friday. The asset weakens despite some recovery in the US Dollar (USD), suggesting a sheer strength in the Japanese Yen (JPY). The Yen gains after Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato alerted that the administration would take "appropriate action" to address excessive foreign exchange fluctuations.

“Will closely monitor the impact of Trump's policies on Japan's economy,” Kato added. In the comments from Kato, Trump’s policies point to a hike in import tariffs by 10%, which he promised in his election campaign.

Earlier, Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) leader Yuichiro Tamaki also warned that Trump’s protectionist policies could put further downward pressure on the Yen.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges Greenback’s value against six major currencies, strives to gain ground above 104.00. The US Dollar corrected sharply on Thursday as traders unwinded so-called ‘Trump trades’ and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy guidance was dovish.

On Thursday, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.50%-4.75%, as expected, and showed confidence over the continuation of the policy-easing cycle with confidence that inflationary pressures remain on track to the bank’s target of 2%.

Japanese Yen FAQs

What key factors drive the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors.

How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen?

One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen.

How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen?

Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen?

The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

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