The main job for Nottinghamshire County Council's next leader - avoiding an existential crisis

"As it stands right now, I'm confident that we can win seats, I'm confident we've got a chance of me still being sat in this seat." Those were the words of Ben Bradley just a month ago when asked how he rated the Conservative Party's chances of keeping control of Nottinghamshire County Council next May.

A month on and with not a single ballot cast, we now know that there is absolutely no chance of Councillor Bradley being sat in the same seat. He's off.

The former Mansfield MP is having a crack at becoming the Conservative candidate for the Greater Lincolnshire Mayor election next year. A leadership race is therefore underway at Nottinghamshire's largest council and we should be hearing who the ruling Tories have picked on Monday (November 25) and that person is then set to take office on December 5.

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Nottinghamshire's Conservatives will be hoping that failing to foresee his own exit will be the only aspect of Ben Bradley's political prediction that is proved wrong. At stake in May 2025 for the Conservatives is not just Nottinghamshire County Council, but a much more existential issue.

Nottinghamshire now has just one Conservative MP, who has just failed in his attempt to become the party's national leader. The Tories are also without a single Nottingham city councillor for the first time in history and the only other authority they control, though with a reduced majority, is Rushcliffe.

Whoever takes on the mantle therefore has some very bleak fortunes to turn around and they will have less than 150 days in which to do it. Who wants to take on such a task?

Sam Smith was the first to declare that he wants to have a go. The current cabinet member for education and SEND believes whoever becomes leader needs to talk up what he says is his party's impressive record of achievement whilst in charge at County Hall.

Richard Jackson is also said to have put his hat in the ring, though the current cabinet member for finance has not yet confirmed this. Neil Clarke, cabinet member for transport, is also said to be interested but I understand he has not yet put his name forward and the deadline for candidates is midday on Sunday (November 24).

Opposition parties may also put up their own candidate to lead the council but with the 34-strong Conservative group still in charge, such an attempt is highly unlikely to succeed. The Conservative Party's nominee will undoubtedly be taking office, but for how long?

Speaking last month, Ben Bradley says issues including the changes to winter fuel allowance could hurt Labour's chances, arguing: "A lot will depend on whether the government manages to salvage anything over the coming months, but it's not been a great start." Aside from the inevitable politicking, Councillor Bradley also acknowledged that the race could actually be a close one, saying: "It is always difficult actually to win the majority here when you've got third parties that potentially take 12 or 15 seats, so it will be fairly tight and in the balance."

Losing the county council would truly be the cherry on what has been a rather rancid cake for Nottinghamshire's Conservatives over the last few bruising years. A loss would see the party without any major influence in the county for at least two years, with the next round of local elections affecting Nottinghamshire due in 2027.

Whoever takes over then isn't just tasked with keeping the county council, but securing any kind of future for the Conservatives in Nottinghamshire at all. Leader of Nottinghamshire County Council might be a nice title to have, but in this political climate for the Tories, it is little wonder that there doesn't appear to be a rush of people seeking the job.