Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer (right) and Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar during a visit to the Caledonian Gladiators Stadium in East Kilbride, while on the General Election campaign trail.

Keir Starmer holds the keys to the next Holyrood election as Anas Sarwar endures poll slide

by · Daily Record

Keir Starmer’s Record interview was an attempt at drawing the battle lines for the next Holyrood election. His Government is providing £3.4bn extra for Holyrood and he wants the focus to be on how the SNP Government spends the windfall.

Voters have become angry with the SNP over their recent failures in office and Labour sees an opening. But the Nationalists, who know how to win Holyrood elections, have a counter-narrative.

Although First Minister John Swinney cautiously welcomed the Labour Budget, his Ministers will accentuate the negative. Their focus will be on the cuts to the Winter Fuel Payment and the refusal by Starmer to scrap the two child benefit cap.

Another irony is that by boosting Holyrood’s funding, Starmer is arming the SNP with a warchest ahead of the 2026 election. Labour sources fear Swinney could use the extra cash in his December Budget to restore a universal WFP to every pensioner in the land.

Such a decision would help the better off, but politics is about voters - and older people are the most reliable group to make it to the polling booths. A weekend opinion poll also showed how competitive the next Holyrood election will be between the SNP and Labour.

Anas Sarwar’s party probably needs to win over 40 MSPs to win the election, but the latest snapshot had Labour on 29 and Nigel Farage’s Reform making a breakthrough. If translated on polling day, Labour, the Tories and Lib Dems collectively would be smaller than the pro-independence SNP and Greens.

Scottish politics

Sarwar would only become First Minister if he attracted the support of Reform - a development that would cause ructions. The Glasgow MSP has a bulging in-tray ahead of 2026. He has to attract quality candidates to stand for Labour and put together a bold manifesto.

But his Achilles' heel is bad news from Whitehall and the ability of the SNP to capitalise politically. Starmer holds the keys to Bute House and both Sarwar and Swinney know it.

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