Trump or Harris, ‘Africa actually isn’t a factor in this election’

Contrasting predictions on poll’s impact on SA

As the US gears up for a crucial election on Tuesday, analysts warned that while the outcome hangs in the balance, a Trump presidency could signal a return to a transactional foreign policy that has historically sidelined South African interests.  

In stark contrast, a Kamala Harris administration would likely prioritise cooperation and partnership with African nations, potentially reshaping the diplomatic landscape. 

Sithembile Mbete, an international relations expert, said SA and the US share a complex but mutually beneficial relationship.  

"The base level assumption is that South Africa and the US are friends... The areas they disagree on aren't enough to destroy the relationship. During the first Trump presidency, Trump just ignored South Africa…there was very little in Trump’s first term that was intrusive in Africa.” 

Mbete said if Donald Trump came back there would be difficulty for SA managing the relationship. 

“Conversely, if Kamala Harris becomes president, her background and experience suggest a more nuanced approach to foreign policy... Her leadership might encourage enhanced trade relations and deeper collaboration on shared goals,” she said. 

Another analyst Dr Kagiso Pooe said “Africa actually isn’t a factor in this election”. 

“The last two Presidents of the USA haven’t visited the continent and that tells a story of and by itself, regardless whether it’s Trump or Harris, [Pretoria] needs to be seen and heard to practice strategic ambiguity.

“For instance, the Ukraine and Russia matter has seen other States like India take a position that upsets the USA,” Pooe said. 

Adv Sipho Mantula, international relations expert from Unisa said Trump’s approach could create hurdles in fostering relationships centered around shared heritage while Harris is likely to review trade relations and policies toward SA and the continent.

Trump might find it easier than Biden to encourage Netanyahu to de-escalate in certain areas.Sithembile Mbete, an international relations expert

On global geopolitics, Mbete said Harris's presidency would "likely continue the same US internationalism we've seen — the idea of the US as a responsible global leader and guardian of the free world".

"This would resemble much of Biden’s approach, including support for Israel, though potentially with a few more restrictions on arms sales," adding that Trump’s return would mean a “significant departure from Biden’s policies,” particularly given Trump’s admiration for Vladimir Putin. 

“The Trump-aligned faction of the Republican Party opposes financial and military aid to Ukraine, this could lead to a reduction or withdrawal of support for Ukraine. Also, Trump might find it easier than Biden to encourage Netanyahu to de-escalate in certain areas,” Mbete said. 

Pooe highlighted that despite differences in approach, “any and all American Presidents put American interests first”. 

“The idea that Harris would be kinder than Trump misses this central point. However, it will be the variance in actions. Israel will be more emboldened by Trump coming to office, but Trump has also said Israel needs to wrap up the war efforts quicker.” 

Mantula said the US policy may ultimately depend on who takes office.

“For Africa and South Africa, these elections will strengthen the bonds that connect us. Kamala Harris might need to review her foreign policy towards the Middle East and African continent if she assumes office, while Trump may need to reconsider his openly supportive stance on Israel, given that Israel is losing traction in global politics,” he said. 

Regarding political symbolism, Mbete stated: “Harris has really downplayed the symbolic aspects… There has been a downplay of gender and, to a lesser extent, race by the Harris campaign. However, if Harris is elected, the symbolism of that will emerge more than it has during the campaign. It is significant, a huge deal, to have a woman president of colour.” 

Pooe said that Trump’s focus on business might benefit SA.  

“Trump is concerned with looking good and transacting on business; Africa and South Africa need this. The Democrats have unfortunately treated Africa as a human rights project and not an economic relationship.” 

Mbete warned that a Trump victory would undermine US democratic symbolism.  

“If Trump wins the election, it signals the end of US democracy as an example to anyone in the world. The symbolic stuff about US democracy and liberal values will be completely undermined by Trump’s presidency,” she said. 

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