Top NFL football knockout, survivor pool picks, strategy, advice for Week 4, 2024: Dodge this heavy favorite

SportsLine's advanced computer model just locked in its top Week 4 NFL survivor picks

The Week 4 NFL schedule features a full slate of games with only one team favored by double-digits in the latest Week 4 NFL odds. Many NFL survivor pool picks have been hit hard by the rash of NFL upsets to open the season. Will the trend of heavy NFL favorites losing outright continue in Week 4? Among the most notable Week 4 NFL matchups for your potential NFL knockout pool picks are Vikings vs. Packers (-3), Eagles (-1) vs. Buccaneers, Chiefs (-7.5) vs. Chargers, and Bills vs. Ravens (-2.5) on Sunday Night Football.

Should the heavily-favored Chiefs be among the top NFL eliminator pool picks in Week 4? Or should you target the San Francisco 49ers, who are 10.5-point favorites against the New England Patriots? Before finalizing any Week 4 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season on an incredible 187-130 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 41-22 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of 2022. 

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

The model can be used to crush the Survivor Pool format, which calls for picking one team to win each week but never using the same team twice. In Week 1, the model recommended the Saints as its top survivor pick. New Orleans won in 79% of SportsLine's simulations, and the Saints dominated Carolina, 47-10, in what was the most lopsided game of the opening week. Then in Week 2, the model recommended the Chargers, who were also picked to win in 79% of simulations, and L.A. also manhandled the Panthers, 26-3. In Week 3, the model backed Seattle to win 74% of the time, and the Seahawks easily dispatched of Miami, 24-3.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds and locked in its Week 4 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 4 NFL survivor pool predictions 

In Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season, the model is shying away from the 49ers (-10.5, 40.5) versus New England, even though the Niners are the first double-digit favorite of the season. The 49ers were dominant in their season opening win over the New York Jets, but have put together back-to-back subpar performances in losses to the Vikings and Rams.

The 49ers continue to deal with multiple injuries to star players, with Christian McCaffrey (calf) out, George Kittle (hamstring) likey returning, and Deebo Samuel (calf) questionable for Sunday. The Patriots knocked out a large number of people in NFL survivor pools with their Week 1 win over the Bengals and are playing hard for first-year head coach Jerod Mayo. The model recommends saving the 49ers for later in the season when they are healthier. See which team to pick instead here.

How to make Week 4 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is backing a surprising team that wins outright in well over 70% of simulations. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 4 NFL survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 4, all from the advanced computer model that nailed its Weeks 1, 2 and 3 survivor picks and is up well over $7,000 since its inception.