Ideology, welfare, and caste census: What do Maharashtra and Jharkhand results tell us about them

The election results will have implications on some pertinent questions in the political discourse.

Saturday’s results for Assembly polls in Jharkhand and Maharashtra cannot be just seen as decider for who gets to form the next government in these States but have long lasting implications with regard to the questions that they settle, at least for the foreseeable future, in the political discourse. The ideas and narratives that find resonance with the people and a guide to political parties on what works and does not.

Maharashtra election results 2024 LIVE updates | Jharkhand election results 2024 LIVE updates

Women and welfare

The biggest takeaway of the two big Assembly polls is the fact that both incumbent governments had announced income support schemes targeted at women -“Mukhyamantri Ladki Bahin Yojana” in Maharashtra and the “Mukhyamantri Maiya Samman Yojana” of Jharkhand are said to be the game changers of the elections.

In Maharashtra, polling among women was up by at least six per cent from 2019, with polling settling at 65.1% in 2024 compared to 59.2% in 2019.

In Jharkhand too, women voted more than men across 32 Assembly. Overall too, more women voted than men in the State, as the State with a total of 2.61 crore registered voters, saw 1.76 crore people vote, among them women clocking 91.16 lakh votes, exceeding male participation by 5.52 lakh votes.

Very clearly then, as in the past, women and welfare measures targeted at them can help accumulate a support base above caste and traditional categories.

Caste census

The BJP’s victory in Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan in 2023 Assembly polls was said to have closed the gate to the caste census as an issue, but in the Lok Sabha elections of 2024, with the “samvidhan khatre main hai” (Constitution is in danger) narrative among marginalised sections, the issue gained traction again. Vast swathes of Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh saw marginalised sections vote for the INDIA bloc and anxieties expressed over BJP ending reservations if it got a huge majority at the Centre. This issue was expected to hit the Assembly elections as well, but, seems to have ebbed.

What does this demonstrate? That the BJP, after missteps in the General Elections, has leveraged the OBC leadership it had cultivated and gained from the 1990s onwards from its social engineering days, and the gains it has made via Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s appeal and the civil society penetration of the RSS among the Scheduled Castes.

Historically, BJP has been the party of the OBCs in Maharashtra, and that was regained in these polls. The lesson for the Congress on the question of the caste census therefore is that it needs to first cultivate credible OBC leadership within to grab the support base. Without that, the demand for a caste census will be played out in the BJP narrative as a ploy to fragment Hindu votes and nothing else, an explanation perhaps as to why the “Batenge toh Katenge” (divided we perish) and “Ek hai toh safe hai” (Together we are safe) slogans worked.

Is ideology important? A case study of Hindutva in Maharashtra

The opportunistic toing and froing by several parties in Maharashtra created a fragmented political landscape, with welfare measures and local loyalties expected to help parties win and overcome was being seen as an erosion of ideology.

With Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) trumping Shiv Sena(UBT) at the hustings, one aspect of the Hindutva vote – the legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray-was decided, but what is even more significant is the contest in Vidarbha where the BJP and Congress went head to head.

The Congress and the BJP were the only two parties that didn’t split and remained ideologically firm. The former had bested the latter in the Lok Sabha elections on the “Constitution is in danger” plank -- this erosion of support among SCs, STs and OBCs was a blow to the Hindutva project as well, as support from these communities made Hindutva subaltern in character and wider in base, and Hindu society less politically fragmented.

The BJP came up with the “Batenge toh Katenge” slogan to overcome this fragmentation of the Hindutva vote and worked hard to win back Dalit and ST votes, deploying Union ministers Kiren Rijiju and Bhupendra Yadav months in advance to do the wooing. In these polls, among the 75 head to head BJP Vs Congress seats, BJP won 64 and Congress 9, restoring the subaltern character of Hinduvta, and reiterated that politics even in a fragmented poll ran on ideology.

Published - November 23, 2024 03:46 pm IST