'Iran is on the back foot - and Israel has key dominance as Middle East barrels toward war'

'Fears by Iran have been furthered by Israel’s latest attempt to take a big scalp in southern Beirut - that of Hezbollah’s Hashim Safi al-Din, Hassan Nasrallah’s apparent successor'

Israel is taking full advantage of the momentum of its attack on Lebanon - whilst behind the scenes preparing a devastating attack on Hezbollah’s Iranian paymasters.

That assault - in reaction to Iran’s Tuesday missile onslaught - will be a key moment in hostilities between the two deadly Middle Eastern enemies and it may be decisive. Plans for the attack may already have been agreed upon and may include an attack on Tehran’s nuclear facilities, in the belief that now is the moment to do it.

Hezbollah, Iran’s main military extension on Israel’s border is on the backfoot, crippled with the deaths of its commanders and many of its fighters in Lebanon. There can now be no doubt that Israeli has massively penetrated Iran and therefore Hezbollah’s secretive networks- an advantage that may not last forever.

The sources of the intelligence may be withdrawn for their safety or be uncovered so it may be that Israel will believe it has to act now, decisively against Iran. Whatever intelligence advantage Israel has been wielding over Iran, it will have taken years to build the pretence, train operatives and that coup may not happen again for a long time.

Perhaps this is the moment Israel has been waiting for and Iran has been played, goaded into launching its foolhardy missile attack this week. And Iran’s response will be the next crucial step as the region edges agonisingly towards an all-out war, which could devastate the region for years.

The arrival of Iran’s foreign minister in person in Lebanon signals what the world has suspected for weeks - that Israeli intelligence has deeply smashed Iran’s secrecy bubble. There is now a massive manhunt for the mole or moles, triggering deep paranoia and also eroding confidence within the networks.

Fears by Iran have been furthered by Israel’s latest attempt to take a big scalp in southern Beirut - that of Hezbollah’s Hashim Safi al-Din, Hassan Nasrallah’s apparent successor. It is not yet known if he died but an inability to keep their leader secure beyond a few days would be a major blow for Hezbollah but crucially Iran, which places enormous value on its most potent proxy.

This underlines Israel’s incredible intelligence dominance over Iran. Iran is massively on the back foot now, despite its Tuesday missile offensive on Israel which was ineffective, and it is awaiting Israel response - as the world braces for a much bigger war. Friday’s speech by Iran’s Supreme Leader will reveal something of Iran’s intentions but they don’t want to show weakness - their response to whatever Israel does next will be a crucial sign of whether Tehran will back down.

Israeli and western analyists will be examining his words very carefully and looking for any sign of weakness or hesitation.