What to expect on US election night

It is a drama-filled global television event like no other.

Every four years US presidential results night is a jamboree of electoral maps, walls, calls, surprises, winners and losers.

My experience tells me the night does not always follow a set path, and today could be roller-coaster. If you plan to stay up into the wee small hours, here are a few pointers.

Exit poll

From 10pm Irish time, US television networks will begin releasing the results of their exit poll.

This is a shared survey of voters after they cast their ballots.

Exit polls give a very early indication of who is ahead in a state and the issues people voted on.

But these are not hard election data. Trends change as results come in, so take exit polls with pinch of salt.

Midnight calls

The first block of states finishes voting at midnight Irish time, with more following at 1am, 2am and 3am.

There is no central vote counting agency so the big four networks CBS, ABC News, NBC News and CNN start making projections.

Once they feel absolutely certain about their analysis a network will "call" a state, or the election, for a candidate.

Other media take their cues from the US networks and Associated Press - the definitive source for US election results for 200 years.

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270 to win

The electoral college map of America is the centrepiece of results night.

Some states will quickly be called for Donald Trump or Kamala Harris and the map will fill up like a red and blue jigsaw puzzle.

Each state carries a number of the 538 total electoral votes - the larger the population the more electoral votes.

Ms Harris and Mr Trump should each notch up 200 electoral college votes fairly quickly. Getting to the magic 270 will depend on seven swing states.

And yes... a 269-269 tie is possible.

The swingers

If predictions hold true, the results in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona will decide who becomes president

PA, MI and WI are collectively known as the "blue wall". GA, AZ and NV and NC are often called the "sunbelt" states.

To make things more interesting... Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District could be a kingmaker on the night.

Mail-in ballots

Expect to hear plenty about mail-in ballots - votes posted internally in the US.

Swing states including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin only begin processing these on election day.

States will try to get these counted quickly, but expect some delays.

Overseas ballots

US citizens living abroad and members of the military can post ballots right up to election day, so these won’t be counted today.

Historically, overseas voters have not played a decisive role, but in the tightest of swing states, ballots - inducing from Ireland - could prove crucial.

House and Senate

Ms Harris v Mr Trump is the big draw but do not forget "down ballot" races.

Thirty-four of the 100 Senate seats and all 435 House of Representatives seats are up for grabs.

A president can only get things done if their party controls the House of Representatives or the Senate, preferably both.

A wild night could see the Senate flip from Democratic to Republican, and the Republican dominated House of Representatives gain a Democratic majority.

And if you are wondering why there are animals on your screen, remember donkeys are Democrats and Republicans are elephants.

Premature declarations

Every network wants to be first, but some do get it wrong.

In November 2000, the networks called Florida for Democrat Al Gore.

Hours later FOX News called it for Republican George W. Bush. Both were withdrawn after it became clear a recount was needed.

Networks will be cautious about calling close states, especially with talk of lawsuits in the air.

Counts and courts

On election night in 2020, Republicans went to court to stop the counting of some ballots in Pennsylvania and Georgia, claiming election irregularities.

In this race almost 200 election-related lawsuits have been initiated, mainly by allies of Mr Trump. Watch for legal battles in swing states.

Mirages

These occur when indications suggest candidate A is headed for victory, but as further results are declared, victory shifts to candidate B.

Popular vote

One candidate always wins more votes than the other. This is called the popular vote.

She or he may also win the Electoral College, but winning the popular vote does not guarantee the presidency.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote, but Mr Trump bagged the 270 electoral college votes needed to win the White House.

Victory speech

Traditionally after a winner is projected, that person makes a short speech. In 2020, Mr Trump upended this by declaring victory ahead of a result.

He still maintains he won that race, and observers believe he will declare an early victory today - even if Ms Harris is ahead.

In the end....

We know the stakes. We know the candidates. Once polls close we will be anxious to know the winner. The night may deliver America’s 47th president surprisingly quickly or may not deliver one at all.

What is certain is that it will be box-office viewing.

RTÉ’s live TV special begins at 11.20pm and will largely be following projections from CBS. The RTÉ News app will have a results map based on data from Reuters.