Hurricane season brings storm of disinformation

"When did that become OK?" asked Barack Obama. "Why would we go along with that?" he enquired of the audience at a campaign rally in Pittsburgh.

"That" was Donald Trump's latest left-field attack line against Kamala Harris: the federal response to Hurricane Helene, particularly in North Carolina, where there has been severe damage and loss of life.

"The Harris-Biden administration says they don’t have any money [for hurricane relief]... They spent it all on illegal migrants... They stole the FEMA money just like they stole it from a bank, so they could give it to their illegal immigrants that they want to have vote for them," Trump claimed at a campaign rally in swing state Michigan two days after Hurricane Helene.

It is not true, but boy has it travelled as a thought in this election.

Some campaign analysts think it has re-energised Trump’s campaign at a vital time, helping him to edge ahead of Harris in polls over the past ten days, particularly in the swing states.

For some strange reason, Hurricane Helene has not received the amount of media attention other big storms have.

Hurricane Milton, which followed, may have gotten more than it merited: certainly it was a massive Category 5 storm out at sea in the Gulf of Mexico, but was a more regular Category 3 storm when it made landfall in Florida, a state as well prepared for hurricanes as you can be, given that there is an annual hurricane season there every September/October.

Unpredictable tornadoes - 126 of them - in an unexpected location did most of the damage this week.

By contrast, Hurricane Helene was a Category 4 storm when it came ashore, and it drove inland - crossing six states, most of them unused to hurricanes.

When it hit the bottom end of the Blue Ridge Mountains it was forced up, cooling and dumping massive amounts of rain, which ran down the mountainsides and caused flash floods.

Asheville, in the western end of North Carolina, is in a bowl in the lower foothills of the Blueridge. Helene dumped 60cms of rain on the area, and a torrent of water swept down on that bowl, ripping through the town and smaller settlements.

According to hurricane history expert Professor Cary Mock of the University of South Carolina, Helene was the deadliest inland hurricane on record.

More than 230 people died, making it the third deadliest hurricane ever recorded in the continental United States, including the coastal states most used to hurricanes (Katrina in New Orleans in 2005 is number one, Camille in 1969 the second deadliest of all time).

An initial insurance claim estimate of $47 billion popped out in the first few days, but its going to go up as the flood waters recede and more damage is revealed.

So there has been very severe damage and loss of life in a part of the country that is not used to dealing with hurricanes.

Read more: Milton leaves 16 dead, millions without power in Florida

Local and state authorities have the lead responsibility, and they can get back up from federal resources.

And like any government response to an emergency, there are legitimate questions to be asked in the interest of learning lessons.

Which is quite separate from the crazy stuff.

An unfortunate by-product of social media is that lies can spread really fast. They are usually simple and direct messages - and factually wrong - but by the time they have been debunked with facts - usually complex, sometimes boring - the damage has been done.

Sometimes they are spread by "bad actors", people out to do damage. Sometimes they are spread by scammers, people out to make money from misfortune. The latter have always existed, but can now scam more people quicker thanks to new technology.

But we also see it as a phenomenon in politics, particularly here in the US, so often the laboratory for leading edge experiments in the democratic process. A quick and outrageous lie can cover a lot more ground a lot quicker and cheaper than multi state rallies and door-to-door canvassing.

So Donald Trump went way beyond scepticism and said a bunch of things that were flat out untrue about the aftermath of Hurricane Helene in speeches, which were amplified by social media.

Camp followers piled on, bad actors joined in, scammers followed in the slipstream of a presidential candidate, and by the time there was a factual response, the idea had been firmly implanted in many peoples minds that all kinds of dreadful things are happening - or good things not happening - in the hardest-hit states.

Which include North Carolina - the hardest hit of all - and Georgia. Both of them also happen to be swing states, part of the six or seven states that will decide the outcome of this presidential election.

Which is why what Trump said about the hurricanes was far from being some random guff, but was instead a carefully targeted piece of political campaigning. Cynical but effective, according to some polling.

Here’s a sample of his claims over the first week of October:

Trump falsely claimed that Biden had not called Georgia’s Governor Brian Kemp, a Republican. Kemp had been on TV the day before saying he had spoken to Biden and had all the resources he needed, but appreciated the offer of more.

The same day he claimed there had been "reports" that the federal government and the Democratic Governor of North Carolina had been going out of their way to not help people in Republican voting areas of the state. Trump provided no evidence when pressed by reporters.

By Thursday, Trump claimed on his Truth Social media platform that the Biden-Harris administration had received "universally negative reviews" for its response. While there has been criticism of the response, it has also been praised by political leaders on the ground from both parties

That same day Trump claimed at a campaign rally in swing state Michigan that "Kamala spent all her FEMA money, billions of dollars, on housing for illegal migrants, many of whom should not be in our country", whom he said would then vote for the Democratic candidate.

There is no basis for this - non-citizens, including those here legally like your correspondent, cannot vote: its a felony to do so. Also there is no evidence that Kamala Harris - or anyone else - stole money from FEMA to house migrants.

Congress authorised $650 million for immigrant emergency funding in the current budget; It authorised $35bn for FEMA emergency response. That is enough to keep the agency operational until November or December. The President wants the Congress to return early to authorise more funds. This now looks like yet another political standoff over the budget prior to the election.

On 4 October, Trump claimed $1bn had been stolen from FEMA funds and given to migrants. This story was not true, and had been debunked before he said it, but he still repeated the claim three times last Friday.

On Saturday, at his rally in Butler Pennsylvania, he falsely claimed that FEMA was only giving Americans $750 in aid in the hurricane zones, contrasting this with international humanitarian aid.

"They’re offering them $750, to people whose homes have been washed away. And yet we send tens of billions of dollars to foreign countries that most people have never heard of. Think of it: We give foreign countries hundreds of billions of dollars and we’re handing North Carolina $750."

This is not true - the $750 payment is an immediate relief payment, paid upfront to claimants for pressing needs like food, water, etc. More money follows depending on the claims lodged.

However if people fear their land will be confiscated if they make claims, as the online rumor mill tells them, then they will get less than they are entitled to from the billions the federal government has assigned for them - for example, the current home repair grant tops out at $42,500.

And that direct aid is separate from the federal funding that will flow to states for further assistance (the US Department of Transport is paying North Carolina an immediate $100m for emergency flood repair work).

This hurricane-related assistance to individual residents is separate from the hurricane-related assistance the federal government will provide to state governments.

For example, the federal transportation department said a week after Helene struck that it was immediately providing $100m to North Carolina’s transportation department "to help pay for the costs of immediate emergency work resulting from Hurricane Helene flood damage".

More federal funding will follow in the longer run, as is normally the way in the relationship between federal, state and local governments.

But the rumor mill - turbocharged by Trump’s campaign messaging - was clearly having an effect, both in the emergency management and in the presidential election.

Two days after Trump made his initial remarks, the White House published an "interested parties" memo from Ben LaBolt, Biden’s Director of Communications, pushing back against the claims.

LaBolt’s main line was that disinformation after a hurricane or other natural disaster discourages people from seeking critical assistance when they need it fast, and can hamper the recovery effort.

The memo also lists a series of untruths which were culled from FEMA - the Federal Emergency Management Agency - which had to divert staff into whipping up a special page on disinformation for the agency's website.

Here is a truncated version of the FEMA list of false rumours:

Rumour: FEMA will only provide $750 to disaster survivors to support their recovery.

See above.

Rumour: FEMA is blockading people in Florida and preventing evacuations.

FEMA is not blockading people in Florida and preventing evacuations. FEMA does not control traffic flow or conduct traffic stops, which are handled by local authorities. This is a harmful rumor that can put lives in danger.

Rumour: FEMA only provides loans to disaster survivors.

This is false. In most cases, FEMA grants do not have to be paid back.

Rumour: The FAA is restricting access to the airspace for Helene rescue and recovery operations.

The FAA is not restricting access for recovery operations. The FAA is coordinating closely with state and local officials to make sure everyone is operating safely in very crowded and congested airspace.

Rumour: FEMA is in the process of confiscating Helene survivor property. If I apply for disaster assistance and my land is deemed unlivable, my property will be seized.

FEMA cannot seize your property or land. Applying for disaster assistance does not grant FEMA or the federal government authority or ownership of your property or land.

Rumour: FEMA is no longer accepting applications for housing assistance.

FEMA is still accepting assistance applications throughout areas affected by Helene.

Rumour: FEMA does not have enough money to provide disaster assistance for Helene.

FEMA has enough money right now for immediate response and recovery needs.

Rumour: FEMA is asking for cash donations and turning away volunteers.

This is false. FEMA does not ask for or generally accept any cash donations or volunteers for disaster response. If you encounter someone claiming to represent FEMA and asking for donations, be careful as that is likely a scam. Government employees will never solicit money.

It is against this swirling background of lies and rumours that Trump has inserted his own touchstone issue - immigrants.

FEMA does indeed provide money and services to immigrants, under its Shelter and Services Programme. It has a specific budget line, approved by Congress, of $650m for this.

FEMA is adjudged to be the right agency for providing such emergency assistance to immigrants - rather than the Customs and Border Agency - because it has the qualified staff and systems already in place. CBP is allocated the money, and sends it on to FEMA for use. Think of it as a kind of sub-contracting arrangement.

But hardly anyone knows this: fact-checking journalists have to spend days digging out this information. By which time its too late.

The politically unengaged have heard a bit of noise about the government doing something dodgy, but only political nerds like you, dear reader, will plough through a lengthy explanation days later for the facts.

And as for explaining the intricacies of government accounts, forget about it. That's how you get away with saying the government has stolen disaster aid to give to immigrants. Watch out for similar antics, coming soon to an election near you.

By Wednesday of this week - the day of the Taoiseach's visit, and the day Milton was about to make landfall, the President of the United States held a televised briefing featuring the heads of the relevant federal agencies, to inform people what was being done, and to advise people in Florida of what they should do.

Joe Biden felt the need to deal with the epidemic of disinformation from Helene to Milton.

"Over the last few weeks, there has been a reckless, irresponsible, and relentless promotion of disinformation and outright lies that are disturbing people. It’s undermining confidence in the incredible rescue and recovery work that has already been taken and will continue to be taken, and it’s harmful to those who need help the most." he said.

"Former President Trump has led this onslaught of lies. Assertions have been made that property is being confiscated. That’s simply not true.

"They’re saying people impacted by these storms will receive $750 in cash and no more. That’s simply not true.

"They’re saying the money is being diverted to migrants. What a ridiculous thing to say. It’s not true. Now the claims are getting even more bizarre," said Biden.

"Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene, a congresswoman from Georgia, is now saying the federal government is literally controlling the weather - we’re controlling the weather. It’s beyond ridiculous. It’s got to stop."

But its not stopping. Because its working. Its tying up the US government, and forcing Biden to speak out in ways that link him - an unpopular figure - closer in the public imagination to Harris. In trying to reach disengaged potential voters in the swing states, and persuade them to vote for him, Trump appears to be effective.

Polling over the past week has seen Trump start to edge ahead of Harris in six of the seven swing states. Far from damaging him, these wild claims about the hurricanes - and before that the cat and dog eating yarn about Springfield, Ohio - may have given the Trump campaign a momentum boost.

The Harris campaign, by contrast, is showing signs of having run short of gas. Which may be why Barack Obama - the Democratic Party’s supreme communicator - has been brought back into the fray, starting with that Pittsburgh rally on Thursday.

Desperation, said Republican commentators. Or maybe recognition that the cats and dogs and hurricane lies are working.

When did that become OK? With the outcome balanced on a knife edge, the past two weeks have seen America once again venture further into the electoral unknown.

With a little over three weeks to go anything - literally anything - is possible in this campaign.