Election timing will become clearer over coming week

Amid the restless atmosphere of Leinster House in recent days, one political memory was niggling on the mind of some TDs.

It was the same year Roy Keane departed from Saipan and Nadine Coyle was kicked out of pop group Six for lying about her age.

There, among the other hurried moments of 2002, was that April night when Bertie Ahern went into a near-deserted Dáil chamber at 9.09pm and - despite a similar atmosphere of speculation and expectation - abruptly triggered a general election that returned him to power.

Roy Keane has recently turned 50 and is still doing things his way, while Nadine Coyle (real age 39) is back on tour with Girls Aloud.

But it seems the child of the noughties, Simon Harris, won't do a Bertie and catch everyone off guard.

Speaking before departing the US, the Taoiseach has put paid to any such theorising, saying he will call an election "in a manner that doesn't come as a surprise to my coalition colleagues and that is courteous and respectful".

It is now widely expected that this Dáil will come to an end if not this week then the following one, with 15 November the most likely date for the electorate to have their say.

But how does it end? And how will the starting gun be sounded on what the former taoiseach, Enda Kenny, had predicted will be "the mother and father of all elections"?

Clearing the decks

Procedurally, it is relatively clear how this comes about. All the housekeeping matters are being tied up in the Oireachtas. The passing of key laws means the legislative decks are being cleared.

The Planning Bill which passed all stages in the Dáil on Wednesday, is something that was considered by the Government parties - Fianna Fáil in particular - before facing the electorate.

It was seen as a key part of solving the housing crisis by speeding up the delivery of supply. The fact that the 900-page bill with hundreds of amendments was passed through the Dáil in three hours was a sign, if it was needed, of a Government in a hurry to pave the way for an election.

There are other laws too that the parties had hoped would be passed before the end of this coalition's term. These include the Defamation Bill and the Mental Health Bill which overhauls the rights of individuals receiving inpatient mental health care.

The Taoiseach said he would like these to be "significantly progressed" before an election is called, suggesting they are unlikely to be passed but on the agenda if his party is returned to office.

All eyes on the Finance Bill

The Finance Bill - giving legal effect to many of the Budget measures - was published on Thursday. Its journey this week will tell us a lot about the date of the election.

At the moment, the bill is due to go to the Finance Committee on 5 November. So its current scheduling means an election could not be called before then.

But that timetable is not set in stone. It could be guillotined to pass all stages by the week after next. If passed by 24 October that would pave the way for an election to be called for 15 November. Watch out for the Oireachtas agenda decided by the Business Committee on Thursday.

The law allowing for the payment of two energy credits announced in Budget 2025 cleared all staged in the Dáil on Wednesday.

Another piece of legislation that will have to be passed is the Social Welfare Bill - giving effect to the welfare payments outlined in the Budget.

It is easier to do this quickly as it is not as contentious, and will have to be passed in order to give effect to increases in welfare payments due on 28 October.

The Politics: Politically, things are less straightforward.

Harris knows it is in his interest to, as he said himself, to "engage with my coalition colleagues" on the matter. He is committing to a sort of political conscious uncoupling - an orderly parting of ways that will look better than something acrimonious.

Another reason is that, while there won't be a formal voting pact, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael will be hoping that their candidates will be transferring votes to each other. And besides, the two parties may well need to "re-couple" to form a government after the votes are counted.

But if Harris wants an election as soon as possible - and his backbenchers are certainly getting impatient - then Micheál Martin has signaled that he is not going to give it to him that easily.

The Tánaiste has insisted on a number of occasions that the "ideal time" for an election is in February.

And so we have a sort of political dance where Fianna Fáil is putting it up to Harris to call an election, but the Fine Gael leader wants joint ownership of the decision by the coalition not to see out its full term.

A subtext to all of this is a Fianna Fáil strategy to present Martin as the more sensible adult in the room, against a grabby Taoiseach putting his party interests before governing.

At a speech to the Fianna Fáil Ard Chomhairle last weekend, Martin said the "entire strategy" of this Government was putting aside politics aside and focusing on the agreed agenda.

He said the coalition had "important work to finish which cannot be rushed".

Earlier, he told the Fianna Fáil think-in that the coalition had "an obligation to govern and not engage in some form of permanent campaign".

There was a similar theme in his speech to the Dublin Chamber of Commerce dinner when he warned about "political spin" and the "endless search for soft coverage".

Governing, he said, "is much harder work than campaigning".

It will become a lot clearer in the coming week whether they will be governing or campaigning by Halloween.

As for a late announcement to the Dáil when almost everyone has gone home? That's anybody's guess.