OPINION: Kildare North has always seen a mix of conservative and left wing voting patterns

Kildare North will have five seats instead of four this time

By Henry Bauress

Retired Leinster Leader journalist

"How will it go, I was asked recently about Kildare North?
So it was off to the online search machine and the older paper files to jerk, and, fill out my memory.
Some headline moments flashed by.
I arrived in Kildare North in 1988 to live in Leixlip, a time which coincided, approximately, with the emergence, at local level, of outgoing and now retiring Social Democrat TD, Catherine Murphy, among others, and the arrival of Intel.
Kildare North has been an unusual mix of (mostly) majority conservative voting and, extending quite far back, a progressive left wing tint.
The latter embodied itself in the presence of Catherine Murphy and the late Emmet Stagg, who was laid to rest in Straffan in March of this year.
Emmet had started out in politics with views to the left within left, you could say in summary, and the public here re-elected him for many years but not in 2016 and 2020.
Catherine had been in both the Workers Party and the Democratic Left before joining and leaving the Labour party, where she had clashed with Emmet.
In 2020, Reada Cronin took a seat for Sinn Fein, which will be regarded as a major landmark in the history of elections in Kildare North.
Then there were TD’s like Charlie McCreevy (Fianna Fail) and, of course, Bernard Durkan (Fine Gael).
Bernard, born in Mayo in 1945, is now the Dail’s oldest TD, is running again.
Elected in 1981 he lost his seat in February 1982 and was elected again in November 1982.
In 2002, he nearly lost out to Fianna Fail’s Paul Kelly, now a District judge
It was Charlie McCreevy’s elevation to a European Commission post, which led to the Kildare North By-Election in March 2005.
Fianna Fail’s Aine Brady topped the poll but Catherine Murphy won the seat, her first Dail seat win, following transfers.
Some dubbed her an overnight success but her husband, Derek, told the Irish Times: “It took her 17 years to become an overnight success.”
The one time Leixlip Town Commissioner was to become one of the Dail’s best known TD’s and became a founding co-leader of the Social Democrats with another former Labour member, Roisin Shortall.
Catherine lost the seat in 2007 and was elected in 2011.
So, how will it go? I am duty bound to state that my prediction abilities have failed me on many, but not all, occasions.
So I always go back to the election maths of our proportional representation system (which every citizen should learn).
At the time of writing (November 21) it looks that around 92,500, 13% more than 2020, will be registered to vote in the election in Kildare North (which has a population of 139,011).
The electorate has increased by 30% since its 71,311 in 2007, 17 years ago.
Traditionally, they do not all vote.
In 2020, the turnout was around 63% of those registered to vote.
The government parties (FF, FG and the Greens) took 54% of the total first preference vote and the Social Democrat, Sinn Fein, Labour and others took 46%.
Fianna Fail led the field with 26%. Catherine Murphy, the one Social Democrat, took 19%, Sinn Fein 17% and Labour, just over 5%.
Will these proportions hold? I just don’t know.
In 2020, for example, Fianna Fail’s Frank O’Rourke got a higher first preference vote than Bernard Durkan but lost out.
Transfers will matter. So does the extent to which the electorate vote for people they like or parties they like.
When the tally people, the unofficial volunteers, who count the votes as they come out of the boxes on Saturday morning, November 30, we shall get a fair idea of the direction.
You can keep an eye on the Leinster Leader/Kildare Live website for info on that.

First Preference votes

Whatever the motivations, generally the top vote getters on the list get the seats but sometimes this does not happen because a candidate with fewer votes gets more transfers elected or eliminated candidates.
Kildare North will have five seats instead of four this time.
Around 16 candidates are running (twelve in 2020).
Assuming a 63% turnout on polling day - no guarantees on that - the quota would be 9,700 approx.
Judging by previous counts in 5 seat/16 candidate constituencies it is likely a candidate will need to get at least half a quota on the first count or over 4,900 to have a chance to be elected.
It does take courage to run for election. And sometimes not to run.