Myanmar's economic growth projected at -1% amid ongoing conflict and macroeconomic instability: World Bank

The Myanmar economy and people are facing a range of challenges, according to the World Bank’s Myanmar Economic Monitor report released on December 11.

The World Bank report says Myanmar's economic growth forecast for the current fiscal year is -1 percent, and that the conflict could lead to continued macroeconomic instability over the next six months.

Myanmar’s economy is facing a significant impact from natural disasters, ongoing conflict, and widespread shortages of basic commodities, and the outlook is bleak, according to a new report from the World Bank. The latest Myanmar Economic Monitor forecasts a -1 percent economic growth for the current fiscal year ending March 2025. This is a lower growth rate than the World Bank’s previous six-month forecast.

Due to raw material shortages, power outages, and ongoing weak domestic demand, the country’s agriculture, manufacturing and services sectors are expected to continue to decline, with no growth. About half of all townships in Myanmar are affected by conflict, which will continue to affect the entire supply chain and cross-border trade. Macroeconomic instability is likely to persist over the next six months. Amidst these challenges, the arrival of Typhoon Yagi and heavy monsoon rains have caused widespread flooding across the country. A total of 2.4 million people living in 192 townships have been affected. The floods have damaged infrastructure and disrupted production. About a third of all businesses and more than half of all agricultural activities have been severely affected by the floods. As a result, food prices have risen, worsening food shortages.

“The recent natural disasters and ongoing conflict have severely impacted Myanmar’s economy, with households bearing the brunt of rising prices and labor market weakness. It is urgent and critical to support recovery efforts to help the most vulnerable populations rebuild their lives and livelihoods,” said Melinda Good, World Bank Country Director for Thailand and Myanmar.