How much will Christmas dinner cost this year?

As 1 December draws ever closer, you may have turned your mind to Christmas planning.

While rising food prices have meant the cost of Christmas dinner soared in the past couple of years, the picture for 2024 is brighter.

Here's what you might expect to pay more (and less) for this Christmas.

Berries

Demand for berries, particularly strawberries, shoots up at Christmas.

Foodstuffs North Island head of meat and produce Brigit Corson said there were more strawberry plants in the ground this year, which should lead to better prices and supply through December.

"As the outdoor season peaks in November, it's hard to know exactly how many strawberries we'll have come Christmas week, but we're optimistic."

Woolworths said berry supply was up 10 percent on last year.

But be warned: There is often a price spike in the days just before Christmas as supercharged demand puts pressure on supply.

Stone fruit

Corson said there had been a good growing season for Hawke's Bay stone fruit, which was tracking ahead by a couple of weeks.

She said better supply was likely to mean lower prices.

Woolworths said the warmer weather this year meant cherries and stone fruit were arriving in shops up to two weeks earlier than last year.

ASB senior economist Mark Smith said he was expecting a 10 percent fall in fruit and vegetable prices this year compared to last.

"A lot relates to seasonality, better growing conditions and the like."

Kumara and other roast staples

Corson said the last of the 2024 kumara crop was still available and would be "fantastic value" compared to last year.

The price of kumara has dropped significantly year-on-year. Last December it was $13.53 a kilogram on average, according to Stats NZ.

In October it was $5.61.

This week, kumara was selling for $6 a kilogram.

Woolworths said the cost of onions, potatoes and carrots were also all down on last year.

Stats NZ data shows the cost of a kilogram of potatoes dropped from $3.47 last December to $2.21 in October.

Meat

Corson said it was unlikely that there would be lower prices for proteins this year because export demand had picked up.

"Which is great news for our farmers but this will impact the price we see on New Zealand shelves."

Last December, a kilogram of porterhouse sirloin steak was $32.48 on average according to Stats NZ. It was $36.65 in October. Woolworths had it for $36.90 a kilogram this week.

A 4.25kg frozen turkey was available at Woolworths this week for $74.

A wider commodity price pick-up was likely to put growing pressure on meat and dairy prices, Smith said.

Salad

Last December, lettuce was $4.23 a kilogram and in October this year it was $4.

Lettuces were selling for $2.50 each in Woolworths this week.

The price of a bag of packaged salad leaves appears to move around a lot.

In December last year it was $4.86 on average for 150g.

In October, that had increased to $5.15.

But this week, Woolworths had a "shredded lettuce" 150g bag for $3.30.

If you add some camembert to your salad, that is more expensive - 125g wheels were an average $5.59 in December last year and $6.04 in October, according to Stats NZ.

It is possible to get it cheaper, though - Woolworths had a home brand option this week for $3.59.

Serving some hummus alongside your salad also looks to have become more expensive.

Smith said avocados had a good growing season and were also likely to be plentiful.

Eggs

If you are making a pavlova from scratch, you might benefit from a drop in egg prices.

Woolworths said they are currently 10 percent to 15 percent cheaper than they were this time last year.

Chocolates

A 250g box of loose chocolates was $10.50 in October but $7.31 in December last year, according to Stats NZ.

ANZ senior economist Miles Workman said the food price index was up 1.2 percent year-on-year in October, much slower price growth than the 12.5 percent recorded mid last year.

But he said a softer labour market might be weighing on household finances to a greater extent this year.

"As at Q3, there were around 12,000 fewer people employed compared to a year prior - our forecast has this rising to almost 27,000 by the end of this year. Households that have involuntarily lost hours/jobs over the past year will feel little comfort from the fact that wage growth has outpaced food price inflation over the past year.

"In other words, the Christmas crunch that many households will feel this year could have more to do with current labour market conditions than the rate of inflation. That's very different to the past few Christmases when inflation was causing the bulk of the squeeze."

Financial mentor Shirley McCombe said she was dealing with a lot of people requesting help with food because they had spent their money on gifts.

"Clients are very focused on trying to make it through Christmas at the moment, and I am concerned that we will see the impact in the New Year - time will tell."

Smith said what happened next year would depend in part on international factors.

If the US went ahead with trade tariffs, it could lead to a fall in the New Zealand dollar which could make imported ingredients and imported food products more expensive.

Commodity prices were also likely to continue to increase, he said.

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