USD/CHF remains below 0.8850 ahead of SNB Interest Rate Decision

12 Dec 2024, 05:53 by Akhtar Faruqui · FXStreet

USD/CHF edges lower due to the softer US Dollar amid increased odds of a Fed rate cut next week.
CME FedWatch Tool indicates nearly a 99% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut on December 18.
The Swiss Franc remains stable ahead of an SNB Interest Rate Decision later on Thursday.

USD/CHF offers its recent gains as the US Dollar (USD) corrects downwards after breaking its four-day winning streak. The USD/CHF pair trades around 0.8840 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The Greenback receives downward pressure as the recent US CPI report seems not enough to keep the Federal Reserve (Fed) from cutting rates in December.

The CME FedWatch Tool suggests nearly a 99% chance of Fed rate reductions by 25 basis points on December 18. Traders shift their focus on the US November Producer Price Index (PPI) for fresh impetus, which is due later on Thursday.

US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.7% year-over-year in November from 2.6% in October. The headline CPI reported a 0.3% reading MoM, in line with the market consensus. Meanwhile, the core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, climbed 3.3% YoY, while the core CPI increased 0.3% MoM in November, as expected.

The Swiss Franc (CHF) remains relatively stable in anticipation of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) cutting its key policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) at its meeting later in the day. This rate cut will mark the fourth consecutive reduction, as inflation remains "comfortably" within the central bank’s 0-2% target range.

However, some economists anticipate a bumper 50 basis point cut in December to boost economic growth as Swiss consumer price inflation rose to 0.7% in November, up from 0.6% in October but falling short of the projected 0.8%. Additionally, Switzerland's economy remains sluggish, with GDP growing by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, compared to 0.6% in Q2.

Economic Indicator

SNB Interest Rate Decision

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s four scheduled annual meetings, one per quarter. Generally, if the SNB is hawkish about the inflation outlook of the economy and raises interest rates, it is bullish for the Swiss Franc (CHF). Likewise, if the SNB has a dovish view on the economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for CHF.