USD/CHF Price Forecast: Trades sideways below 0.8850

21 Nov 2024, 10:09 by Sagar Dua · FXStreet

USD/CHF trades in a tight range below 0.8850 as investors seek fresh Fed interest rate cues.
Donald Trump’s economic agenda will be inflationary for the US economy.
Investors await flash US S&P Global PMI for November and SNB Schlegel’s speech, which are scheduled for Friday.

The USD/CHF pair consolidates in a tight range below 0.8850 in European trading hours on Thursday. The Swiss Franc pair trades sideways as investors look for fresh cues about whether the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates again in the monetary policy meeting in December. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) holds its Wednesday’s recovery and aims to break above the fresh yearly high.

Traders doubt Fed rate cuts next month as market experts believe that price pressures in the United States (US) region could rebound amid expectations that President-elect Donald Trump will raise import tariffs and lower taxes, a move that will boost employment, economic growth, and consumer spending.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the likelihood of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25%-4.50% has diminished to 59% from 72% a week ago.

Going forward, investors will focus on the flash S&P Global PMI data for November, which will be released on Friday. The preliminary PMI data will help investors to project the next move in the US Dollar.

On the Swiss Franc (CHF) front, investors await Swiss National Bank (SNB) Vice Chairman Martin Schlegel’s speech, which is scheduled for Friday. In his last speech at an event organized by Raiffeisen Bank in Cham, Switzerland, on October 29, Schlegel emphasized the need for interest rate reductions to maintain price stability.

USD/CHF bounces back after a mild correction to a 50% Fibonacci retracement around 0.8800. The Fibo tool is plotted from a May high of 0.9225 to a September low of 0.8375. Upward-sloping 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 0.8770 suggests that the near-term trend is bullish.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 60.00-80.00 range, indicating a strong bullish momentum.

The asset could rise to near the July 5 low of 0.8950 and the psychological resistance of 0.9000 after breaking above the November 14 high of 0.8918.

In an alternate scenario, a downside move below 38.2% Fibo retracement at 0.8700 could drag the asset towards the October 23 low of 0.8650, followed by the November low of 0.8616.

USD/CHF daily chart

Economic Indicator

SNB Chairman Schlegel speech

Martin Schlegel became the Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman in October 2024. Schlegel was previously the Vice Chairman of the Governing Board of the SNB and he worked at various positions in the Swiss central bank. As head of the SNB. Schlegel remarks can significantly alter the value of the nation's currency, the Swiss Franc (CHF)