USD/CNH: Likely to trade in a range of 7.2250/7.2500 – UOB Group

The US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 7.2250/7.2500. In the longer run, momentum is beginning to slow; a breach of 7.2000 would mean that USD is not rising further, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann note.

Momentum is beginning to slow

24-HOUR VIEW: “Following last Thursday’s rise to 7.2700, we indicated on Friday that ‘Given the severely overbought conditions, USD is unlikely to advance further.’ We were of view that USD ‘is more likely to trade in a range, probably between 7.2350 and 7.2700.’ USD subsequently traded in a range of 7.2308/7.2555, closing slightly lower by 7.2429 (-0.13%). Further range trading still seems likely, even though the softened underlying tone suggests a lower range of 7.2250/7.2500.”

1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “Our most recent narrative was from last Wednesday (13 Nov, spot at 7.22470), wherein ‘The level to monitor is 7.2800 and the next resistance above 7.2800 is at 7.3115.’ USD has not been able to make further headway since then, and momentum is beginning to slow. From here, if USD breaks below 7.2000 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would mean that USD is not rising further.”

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