NZD/USD builds on post-RBNZ strength; hits one-week top near 0.6900 ahead of US data

• NZD/USD catches aggressive bids after the RBNZ’s expected 50 bps rate cut on Wednesday.
• The USD struggles near the weekly low amid sliding US bond yields and supports the pair.
• Trade war concerns might cap the risk-sensitive Kiwi ahead of the crucial US inflation data. 

The NZD/USD pair builds on the overnight bounce from sub-0.5800 levels, or a fresh year-to-date low and gains strong positive traction on Wednesday after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) announced its policy decision. The intraday move up remains uninterrupted through the first half of the European session and lifts spot prices to the 0.5900 mark, or a one-week high in the last hour. 

As was widely anticipated, the RBNZ lowered the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points (bps), from 4.75% to 4.25% at the conclusion of the November policy meeting. In the post-meeting press conference, RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said there had been little discussion on cutting rates by anything other than 50 bps. This might have disappointed some investors anticipating a more aggressive easing, which, in turn, boosts the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and prompts aggressive intraday short-covering around the NZD/USD pair. 

Meanwhile, expectations that Scott Bessent – US President-elect Donald Trump's US Treasury secretary nominee – will restrain budget deficits drag the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields to a fresh multi-week low. This, along with the optimism over a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hezbollah, keeps the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) depressed near the weekly low, which offers additional support to the NZD/USD pair. That said, concerns that Trump's tariff plans will trigger trade wars might cap gains for the risk-sensitive Kiwi. 

Traders might also opt to wait on the sidelines and look to the crucial US inflation data for cues about the Fed's rate-cut path, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand and provide a fresh impetus to the NZD/USD pair. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data. In the meantime, the prelim (revised) US Q3 GDP print, along with US Durable Goods Orders, could influence the USD and produce short-term trading opportunities during the North American session.

New Zealand Dollar FAQs

What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.

How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.

How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar?

Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.

How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar?

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

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