Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD rises above $30.50 as Russia warns of a strike on Ukraine

• Silver price extends its gains due to the rising Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a warning about a potential nuclear-capable ballistic missile strike on Ukraine.
• The demand for the dollar-denominated Silver increases due to the subdued US Dollar.

Silver (XAG/USD) continues its upward trend for the second consecutive session, hovering around $30.70 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. This rally in Silver price is largely driven by escalating geopolitical tensions. Reports suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin warned of a possible nuclear-capable ballistic missile strike on Ukraine, following Moscow's recent large-scale attacks on key energy infrastructure.

Meanwhile, a ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah was successfully maintained on Wednesday, thanks to a deal brokered by the United States and France. This truce has enabled residents to begin returning to their homes. However, Israel is still engaged in military operations against Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Furthermore, the weakening of the US Dollar (USD) is making dollar-denominated Silver more affordable for buyers with foreign currencies, boosting its demand. Additionally, the US bond market has strengthened after US President-elect Donald Trump selected Wall Street veteran and fiscal conservative Scott Bessent as the US Treasury Secretary.

Markets are closely monitoring upcoming US data for further clues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy direction. On Wednesday, US core PCE prices for October met expectations, keeping investor hopes alive for another rate cut in December. However, other data indicated a resilient economy, suggesting that the Fed may take a cautious approach in the coming year.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, futures traders are now pricing in a 66.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December, up from 55.9% a week ago. However, they expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged during its January and March meetings.

Silver FAQs

Why do people invest in Silver?

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Which factors influence Silver prices?

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

How does industrial demand affect Silver prices?

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves?

Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

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