GBP/JPY holds ground near 194.50 following disappointing UK Retail Sales, PMI awaited

22 Nov 2024, 07:15 by Akhtar Faruqui · FXStreet

GBP/JPY may depreciate as UK Retail Sales fell 0.7% MoM in October, exceeding the expected 0.3% decline.
Reuters survey indicated that 56% of economists anticipate a BoJ rate hike in December.
Governor Kazuo Ueda mentioned the possibility of further rate hikes, highlighting the Yen's impact on economic and price stability.

GBP/JPY remains steady around 194.50 during the early European hours, following the lower-than-expected UK Retail Sales figures for October released on Friday. Traders now focus on S&P Global UK Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) figures due later in the day.

UK Retail Sales dropped by 0.7% month-over-month in October, significantly exceeding the expected 0.3% decline and reversing the previous 0.1% increase. On an annual basis, Retail Sales grew by 2.4%, falling short of the anticipated 3.4% rise and the prior reading of 3.2%.

The GBP/JPY cross faced challenges during the Asian session as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gained ground following insights from a Reuters survey on expectations for the Bank of Japan (BoJ). According to the survey, 56% of economists anticipate the BoJ will raise interest rates at its December meeting, driven by the JPY’s depreciation and improving economic conditions.

Additionally, Governor Kazuo Ueda stressed the need to address Yen's impact on economic and price stability, suggesting the possibility of further rate hikes. Additionally, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s administration is considering a $90 billion stimulus package aimed at alleviating the burden of rising prices on households.

Recent data indicated that Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to a nine-month low of 2.3% year-over-year in October. Similarly, the annual core CPI, which excludes fresh food, also dropped to 2.3%, a six-month low, slightly above the forecast of 2.2%.

Additionally, the Jibun Bank Japan Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased to 50.2 in November, up from 49.7 in October, which had marked the lowest level in four months. However, the Manufacturing PMI unexpectedly fell to 49.0 in November, the lowest reading since March, down from 49.2 in October, missing market expectations of 49.5.

Economic Indicator

Retail Sales (MoM)

The Retail Sales data, released by the Office for National Statistics on a monthly basis, measures the volume of sales of goods by retailers in Great Britain directly to end customers. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the MoM reading comparing sales volumes in the reference month with the previous month. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Pound Sterling (GBP), while a low reading is seen as bearish.