Advantage real estate buyers

I’ve been asked what is happening in the real estate market with increasing frequency in the last few months.

I decided to take a closer look, using just the numbers from a one-week period (not including recreational properties).

The numbers don’t show a complete picture, one worth a 1,000 words, so maybe just 800.

My analysis will examine the dynamics between new listings, existing inventory and completed sales, highlighting the balance—or imbalance—between supply and demand in different segments of the market.

From entry-level to luxury homes, the distribution of active listings compared to sold properties is definitely showing us a few things. (This is only MLS data, private sales are not included)

In the past week, according to numbers from the Association of Interior Realtors, a large portion of the British Columbia Interior real estate market had a total of 8,444 existing listings. During that same period, 317 sales were recorded and 425 new listings were added.

Those listings were spread across a range of price segments including:

• Up to $250,000—569 listings and 28 sales, a ratio of 20.32 listings per sale. The lowest price range has a substantial oversupply, likely leading to longer listing times. That is big buyers’ advantage.

• $250,000-$500,000—1,784 listings and 85 sales. That price segment also showed an oversupply, with a ratio of 20.99 listings per sale. Although demand exists, buyers have the advantage in negotiations and sellers may need to be flexible on pricing.

• $500,000-$1,000,000—3,598 listings and 151 sales. While this segment is the most active, the listings-to-sales ratio of 23.82 indicates an oversupply, with buyers having a wide range of options, sellers not so much.

• $1 million-$2 million—1,895 listings and 50 sales. The higher-end market shows a significant oversupply, with a listings-to-sales ratio of 37.9. That reflects slower movement due to a smaller buyer pool, often resulting in extended time on the market.

• Over $2 million—598 listings and three sales. The luxury segment has the slowest market speed, with an exceptionally high ratio of 199.33 listings per sale. That suggests the luxury market is extremely oversupplied. If you have a few extra millions of dollars kicking around, it looks like the time to scoop up a good deal.

The majority of listings fall within the $500,000 to $1 million range, reflecting high inventory in the mid-market segment, which typically targets families and mid-range buyers. The $250,000 to $500,000 range also has a significant number of listings, attracting first-time and budget-conscious buyers.

The majority of sales also occurred in the $500,000 to $1 million range, with 151 transactions, showing that demand in the mid-range market is strong. However, the high-end market (over $2 million) saw only three sales, indicating significantly lower activity among luxury properties.

The new listings-to-sales ratio provides insights into market speed, showing the balance between the rate of new listings entering the market and sales. A higher number means it’s good for buyers and bad for sellers.

New listings-to-sales ratio = 425 new listings / 261 sales = 1.63

A ratio of 1.63 suggests a buyer’s market in the short-term, where new listings outnumber sales, giving buyers more options and putting less pressure on them to act quickly. I have also noticed the number of new listings versus sales has come down, possibly indicating people are deciding not to put their homes up for sale as readily as before. I also noticed a higher incidence of cancelled and expired listings just over the last while.

For a broader perspective on market dynamics, the existing listings-to-sales ratio highlights the balance of supply and demand in the current inventory:

Existing listings-to-sales ratio = 8,444 listings / 317 sales = 26.63

This high ratio of 26.63 indicates a slow market overall, with a significant surplus of listings relative to sales. This dynamic favours buyers, who can take advantage of the high inventory.

Simply put, 26 places are for sale and one will sell. Next week, there will be 27 places for sale and one will sell. Then 28 places and one sells. Rinse repeat.

I do this analysis—usually once a week or so—not in great detail but for clients in specific price ranges to let them know what is happening in their market range.

To give a little context, I pulled some information from 2022, 2023 and 2024. For the month of September 2022, in single family residential, there were 1,162 active listings in the Central Okanagan, in September 2023 1,230 and this September 1,727. That works out to about a 60% increase over two years.

There were about 50% more sales in September 2022 than in September 2024, meaning far less for sale two years ago and about 50% more sales. Our ratio of sales to listings is far and away higher than just two years ago. Simply put, way more homes are for sale and far fewer are being sold. The turnover rate has substantially come down.

The big take away is, if you own a property (in a segment) where there are several other similar properties (commodity housing), it’s important to be aggressive in your pricing if you want to be the one in 26 that sells.

If you have suggestions for other real estate-related articles, please email me at: anthony.shephard@2percentrealty.ca

This article is written by or on behalf of an outsourced columnist and does not necessarily reflect the views of Castanet.