UK retailer sentiment falls at fastest pace in two years

UK retailer sentiment fell at the fastest pace in two years throughout November, according to the Confederation of British Industry.

Retail sales volume declined to -18% in November, down from -6% in October, with retailers also saying they expect to see sales decline at a faster pace of -29% next month.

Sales volumes were still considered to be "poor" for the time of year at -22% but were slightly higher than October's reading of -25%. Sales were also expected to be below seasonal norms in December at -15%.

Sentiment amongst retailers about their business situation over the next three months further weakened to -21% in November – down from -13% in August, and the weakest balance since a reading of -22% in November 2022.

Of note, selling price inflation eased to +24% in the year to November from +30% in August, remaining below the long-run average for the third consecutive quarterly survey. However, retailers expect this measure to accelerate to +33% next month.

CBI lead economist Ben Jones said: "Retailers continue to report disappointing sales, though trading conditions have shown some improvement since the middle of the year. Yet the last time retailers felt this gloomy was back in November 2022, at the peak of the inflation shock. This makes the sharp decline in sentiment this month all the more telling.

"The stark rise in Employers' National Insurance next year will hit retailers hard. And the planned increase in business rates for higher-value properties will add significant operational costs for distribution centres. The government must urgently partner with businesses across the distribution sector to ease the cumulative cost burden, which threatens to weaken investment and hiring in the year ahead, as well as resulting in higher prices for consumers".

Reporting by Iain Gilbert at Sharecast.com