Grammy Burning Questions: Where Are Chappell Roan, Beyoncé, Kendrick Lamar, Sabrina Carpenter and Others on the First Ballot?

Another year, another round of Grammy voting begins. Earlier today, the first batch of submissions for the 2025 Grammy Awards opened to the voting members of the Recording Academy, who will parse through the nearly 100 categories to whittle down the contenders.

But before the voting truly kicked into full gear, many were already wondering how the chips might fall. Would Beyoncé focus strictly on the country categories for her latest album “Cowboy Carter,” or would she submit across the board? Are there going to be any Taylor Swift-sized surprises? Will Kendrick Lamar‘s scathing “Not Like Us” get considered for top categories, and lend some institutional credence to diss tracks? Did Drake and the Weeknd let go of their Grammy grudges and get back in the race?

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Needless to say, the 2025 ballot already has its fair share of expected submissions and curveballs. With first-round voting scheduled to wrap on Oct. 15 and final nominations getting announced on Nov. 8, Variety takes a pass at the first-round ballot, answering all of the burning questions that come with it.

Q: Did Beyoncé go full country with “Cowboy Carter” and focus mainly on that genre category?

A: The million-dollar question. After all the discourse and arguments over whether or not “Cowboy Carter” would be, and in fact is, a country album, the superstar singer is hedging her bets by going big. Eight different songs were submitted across genre lines, with “Texas Hold Em” gunning for record of the year, song of the year and best country song. Then, “16 Carriages” is included in best country solo performance and “Ya Ya” is in best Americana performance. “Tyrant” and “Spaghettii” turn up in best R&B song and best melodic rap performance, respectively, while “Levii’s Jeans” is in best pop-duo/group performance and “Bodyguard” is in best pop solo performance. “II Most Wanted,” her duet with Miley Cyrus, is included in best country duo/group performance, while the album itself is up for album of the year and, yes, best country album. With the recent “Cowboy Carter” snub at the CMAs, Beyoncé isn’t putting all her eggs in one country basket.

Q: What about Post Malone?

A: With his latest country album “F-1 Trillion,” Post Malone slapped on a cowboy hat and dove right in. Among his 10 previous Grammy nominations (all of which he lost), he was up for some of the top categories as well as rap and pop ones. This year, he’s going for the Big 4 — “I Had Some Help” with Morgan Wallen was submitted for record and song of the year, while “F-1 Trillion” is contending for album of the year — and strictly country categories. “Yours” was submitted for best country solo performance, while “Help” is seeking consideration for best country song and best country duo/group performance. (Plus best music video.) “F-1 Trillion” is also included among best country album contenders.

Q: Who’s got a shot for best new artist?

A: This year has seen a significant wave of new artists finding chart success and beyond, with a class including Sabrina Carpenter, Chappell Roan, Shaboozey, Tommy Richman, Benson Boone, Renee Rapp and Teddy Swims all included in the first round of submissions. And it could be anyone’s game, really. Some surprising acts stand out on the list — Kate Hudson and Sophie Ellis-Bextor, to name a few — but with the overwhelming amount of artists looking to make the final cut (there are 323 in total) the focus shifts from who was submitted to who wasn’t. Some may be surprised to learn that Tate McRae didn’t make the cut, but it aligns with the Academy’s rule that you can’t submit a fourth time in the category (she’d previously submitted to the limit).

Q: Anything out of the ordinary for the pop girlies?

A: As surmised in Variety‘s Grammy predictions, women could constitute the entirety of the album of the year categories and largely dominate the other Big 4 tallies. But beyond the general fields, there isn’t much that sticks out across the genre-specific categories. Billie Eilish submitted in the pop categories for “Hit Me Hard and Soft” and “Birds of a Feather”; Ariana Grande submitted “We Can’t Be Friends (Wait For Your Love),” “The Boy Is Mine” with Brandy and Monica, and “Yes, And?” across pop and dance/electronic; Lady Gaga put “Die With a Smile,” her duet with Bruno Mars, in record and song of the year as well as pop; and Dua Lipa entered “Radical Optimism” and its singles “Houdini” and “Illusion” in pop. Taylor Swift largely did the same, with “Fortnight” and “I Can Do It With a Broken Heart” popping up in pop and technical categories. The one place where Swift may have an advantage is in best music film, where her “Eras Tour” movie is submitted alongside Celine Dion’s “I Am Celine” documentary and Gaga’s “Chromatica Ball.” It only helps Swift that Beyoncé’s “Renaissance: A Film by Beyoncé” was, for some reason, not submitted in that category.

Q: Wait, what about Sabrina Carpenter and Chappell Roan?

A: Carpenter and Roan submitted as expected for the Grammys. They each targeted the pop categories and could very well be up for all four of the general field ones, too. The only thing of note: Carpenter took a page out of the Swift playbook by submitting “Espresso” for record of the year and “Please Please Please” for song of the year.

Q: Is rap beef good for the Grammys?

A: Just as soon as Kendrick Lamar’s “Not Like Us” released in May, thus began the chatter around whether or not the Recording Academy would consider it eligible for nominations. (Spoiler: of course it would be.) And it is, becoming the only song in the feud between Lamar and Drake to get submitted in the first round of voting. “Not Like Us” was submitted for record of the year and song of the year, as well as in its potential rap categories (best rap song, best rap performance). The diss track was also submitted for best music video and best arrangement, instruments and vocals. Lamar could be up against himself in several of the categories due to his feature on Future and Metro Boomin’s “Like That,” which is included in the tally for record of the year, song of the year, best rap song and best rap performance.

Q: Speaking of, is Drake still mad at the Grammys?

A: Drake, of course, could have been in contention with Lamar in some of the aforementioned categories if he decided to submit his songs — a reminder that he’s been on a boycott of the Grammys going on years now after he withdrew his nominations in 2022 when the Weeknd was snubbed for “After Hours” the year prior. Like with the 2024 Grammys, Drake does have a few submissions for songs he’s featured on — Sexyy Red’s “U My Everything” for best melodic rap performance, Gordo’s “Healing” for best music video — while the Weeknd pops up as a feature on Future and Metro Boomin’s “We Still Don’t Trust You” in best melodic rap performance. But those were likely submitted by the title artists. It’s a similar situation in the producer of the year, non-classical category, where numerous musicians (Boi-1da, Tommy Parker) submitted for their work for Drake songs. Joining the Canadians in sitting out next year’s ceremony is Zach Bryan, who surprisingly did not submit for any categories including the expected country, Americana or rock tallies.

Q: What else is shaking in the hip-hop categories?

A: It could very well be a veteran’s game at the 2025 Grammys. After all, Killer Mike won all three major rap categories earlier this year, and he returns with submissions from his latest “Michael & the Mighty Midnight Revival, Songs for Sinners and Saints” and the song “Humble Me.” But what’s notable is that many of the submissions that stand out come from legacy acts — LL Cool J, Rakim, Will Smith, MC Lyte, Common and Pete Rock, Busta Rhymes — who have a very strong chance of getting nominations alongside artists like Travis Scott and Doja Cat.

Q: Latin music had an underwhelming showing in the 2024 show. Of the major artists who are predicted to get nominations outside of the Latin categories, who actually stands a chance of getting noms?

A: There are three massive – both in quantity and quality – Latin albums that were rendered eligible across a variety of categories: Shakira’s 17-song “Las Mujeres Ya No Lloran,” Peso Pluma’s 24-song “Éxodo” and Kali Uchis’ 14-song “Orquídeas.” All three parent LPs were also submitted for album of the year, a category that saw its first and only Spanish-language nominee in 2023 (Bad Bunny’s “Un Verano Sin Ti”). 

Pluma had the heaviest hand in submissions (10 in total), qualifying for genre-specific categories in Latin, global, rap and pop. His and Kali Uchis’ “Igual Que Un Ángel” was submitted for both record of the year and best pop duo/group performance. “Gimme a Second” appears in the best rap song and performance categories, while “Put Em in the Fridge” with Cardi B is eligible as best melodic rap performance.

Like Uchis, Shakira submitted “Las Mujeres” for best Latin pop album. Shakira also appears in the record and song of the year categories with “Puntería,” and in best pop solo performance with “Ultima.” 

As expected, Bad Bunny submitted his 22-song trap album, “Nadie Sabe Lo Que Va a Pasar Mañana,” for album of the year. However, it’s clear he’s gunning for recognition in the record and song of the year categories with three songs submitted in each: “Cybertruck,” “Monaco,” and “Nadie Sabe.” (“Cybertruck” was also submitted for best pop solo performance.) That could ultimately play against him, though, if the committee splits the votes across his submissions.

Q: And the question we’re all wondering: Will it be a brat winter, too?

A: Like the changing of the seasons, brat summer transitioned into brat fall and, if things go right for Charli XCX with the 2025 Grammy nominations, it could easily be a brat winter. The pop star is going far and wide with songs off her latest album “Brat,” which is submitted for album of the year, best dance/electronic album and best engineered album, non-classical. (It’s worth noting that she submitted the album in dance/electronic and not pop, where she would likely face stiff competition from artists including Taylor Swift, Chappell Roan and Sabrina Carpenter.) She proceeds to go wild across the board: “360” is included in record and song of the year, plus best music video; “Apple” is in best pop solo performance; “Guess (Remix)” with Billie Eilish is in best pop duo/group performance; “Von Dutch” is in best dance pop recording; and the “Von Dutch” remix with A.G. Cook and Addison Rae is in best remixed recording. Suffice it to say, she’ll land somewhere, and you’ll likely see her painting the red carpet slime green.