New study reveals increase in illicit gun seizures in Latin America and the Caribbean

PORT OF SPAIN, Trinidad, CMC – A new study has found that there is a notable increase in seizures of firearms shipments to both the Caribbean and Latin America from 2016 to 2023.

The study, titled 'Trends in Trafficking: Comparing US-based Firearms Trafficking to the Caribbean and Latin America', also found that seizures of shipments to Mexico more than tripled in this period, and seizures of Caribbean-bound shipments increased by 48 per cent.

The study done by Matt Schroeder, senior researcher at the Small Arms Survey, used newly acquired data from US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) to analyse the types, transport modes, and seizure locations of illicit firearms shipments from the United States to the Caribbean and Latin America.

It highlights key differences in trafficking dynamics between the latter two regions.

The study, which was published on the website of the Trinidad-based Caribbean Community (CARICOM) Implementation Agency for Crime and Security (IMPACS) today, is an initial analysis of the data and what it reveals about the similarities and differences between US-based trafficking to the Caribbean and Latin America.

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The author notes that in future research the preliminary findings from this analysis will be checked against data from other sources, including data that government agencies in destination states have collected.

The data also confirms that US interdictions of illicit arms shipments are highly concentrated in a small number of states and regions.  Nearly 90 per cent of Caribbean-bound shipments were seized in southern Florida, an area known as a hotbed of trafficking to Haiti, the Bahamas, and other Caribbean islands.

Similarly, the vast majority of shipments bound for Mexico were seized in Texas and Arizona. Both findings are consistent with previous research on US-based arms trafficking to the Caribbean and Latin America.

The newly acquired data on firearms seizures at US ports of exit shows that trafficking dynamics vary significantly between the Caribbean and Latin America, and even within these regions.

“These differences include the number of seizures, the types of seized weapons, the illegal shipments' modes of transport, and the seizure locations. Some of these differences are consistent with previous studies, while others are more surprising, such as the comparatively high rates of seizures of AK- and AR-pattern rifles and high-capacity magazines in shipments to the Caribbean compared to Latin America,” the study noted.

The data also reveal that the dynamics of trafficking to most of Latin America are more similar to trafficking to the Caribbean than to Mexico, for example.

“These differences underscore the methodological peril of the over-aggregation of regional data on arms trafficking and the need for detailed, disaggregated data on each country in a given region,” according to the study.

The data also highlight several potentially noteworthy trends in firearms trafficking and counter-trafficking efforts that merit additional examination.

The data appear to show a dramatic increase in US seizures of illicit outbound firearms shipments to the Caribbean and Latin America, with the largest number of seizures occurring in 2022–23.

“Whether this increase reflects additional or improved screening of shipments, an increase in trafficking, changes in data collection, or some combination of these possible explanations is unclear,” read a section of the findings.

“Also notable is the steep rise in seizure rates of semi-automatic rifles and high-capacity magazines in illegal firearms shipments from the United States to the Caribbean. This increase is consistent with reports of growing demand for these items in the Caribbean, including in Haiti, where some armed groups are better equipped than the security forces.”

According to the study, “The apparent demand for these weapons, combined with the spread of conversion devices and ghost guns, represents a worrisome trend in the Caribbean. Corroborating and fully explaining these findings require additional data, including local seizure data from Caribbean governments and trace data from other national and international law enforcement agencies.”