Six million homes and businesses in England 'at risk' of flooding from rivers and sea

The Environment Agency has warned that approximately one in five homes and businesses in England are at risk of river, sea and flash flooding.

A significant new update from the agency, following the widespread disruption and floods caused by storms Bert and Darragh, reveals that 6.3 million properties in England are situated in areas prone to flooding from rivers, the sea or surface water, or a combination of these sources.

This figure is an increase from the 5.5 million reported in the last assessment in 2018. The update utilises more advanced data and modelling, including new mapping down to a 2m scale, and takes into account recent changes such as new construction and a deteriorating climate.

For the first time, the analysis considers the impacts of climate change and predicts that it will result in an increase in the number of properties at risk from rivers, the sea or surface water to about eight million by mid-century – equating to around one in four homes and businesses. Approximately 4.6 million of the currently at-risk properties face surface water floods, which occur when heavy rainfall overwhelms drainage systems and causes run-off or flash flooding.

The Environment Agency (EA) stated that this figure represents a 43% increase on the previous assessment, due to improvements in data, modelling and technology use to fill gaps in some parts of the country and provide a much more accurate assessment of surface water flood risk.

The assessment also found that approximately 2.4 million properties, including houses, flats, caravans, care homes and businesses, are in areas at risk of flooding from rivers and the sea in England. This is slightly lower than the 2.6 million reported in the last assessment.

However, the EA has noted an 88% increase in the number of properties at the highest levels of risk. Currently, 367,900 homes and businesses are in areas with a greater than one in 30 chance of flooding in any given year.

Julie Foley, director of flood risk strategy at the Environment Agency, highlighted the advancements in understanding flood and coastal erosion risks: "We have spent the last few years transforming our understanding of flood and coastal erosion risk in England, drawing on the best available data from the Environment Agency and local authorities, as well as improved modelling and technological advances."

She added: "Our updated assessment shows there are 6.3 million properties in England in areas at risk of flooding from rivers, the sea or surface water."

Floods minister Emma Hardy acknowledged the report's illustration of how "too many communities" find themselves at risk from flooding. She said: "Combined with the fact that this Government inherited flood defences in their worst condition on record, it is vital we invest in protecting our communities."