Baku Briefing: Uncertainty looms over Africa’s priorities at COP29

Some participants have expressed frustration over the ongoing deadlock on critical issues at COP29, amidst perceived lack of commitments from wealthy nations and the Donald Trump effect

The second week of negotiations is currently underway at the ongoing United Nations Climate Change Summit-COP29, hosted in Baku, the capital city of Azerbaijan.

As negotiators strive to finalise agreements and establish positions, considerable uncertainty surrounds the foremost priorities for Africa and the Global South at this year’s conference. This unease is exacerbated by perceptions of sabotage and frustrations stemming from both developed nations and certain developing countries.

Parties have made some significant progress on key issues pertaining to the Carbon market, energy and stemming food wastages among others in the past nine days of engagement at the summit. Undoubtedly, the COP29 atmosphere is filled with uncertainties and frustration as delegates/participants await final decisions by the close of plenary session on Friday barring all odds.

The pace of progress on critical issues such as the ambitious climate finance deal, adaptation and just transition have been considerably negligible.

Some participants have expressed frustration over the ongoing deadlock, with some saying Parties are lukewarm about commitments due to concerns that US newly elected President Donald Trump, a renowned climate denier and fossil fuel enthusiast, would pull the world’s biggest greenhouse gas emitters, US, out of the Paris accord again upon resuming office next year.

Similarly, the African Group of Negotiators (AGN) have also expressed frustration over the ongoing process amidst accusations and counter accusations on who is blocking progress and what not.

On Tuesday, African Ministers restated that a deal on climate finance; the famous New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) must be agreed without compromise to their needs and those of other developing countries.

“They have reiterated their call for an ambitious, time bound finance goal that is responsive to, and commensurate with assessed needs of developing countries to support the implementation of current and future NDCs and NAPs,” said AGN Chair, Ali Mohamed.

Africa’s top priority and lingering concerns

This year, the COP29 agenda is expected to be anchored on climate finance, mitigation, and adaptation, with the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) designed to provide support for vulnerable communities in global climate solutions.

Last week, Mr Mohamed reiterated that climate finance and adaptation are Africa’s top priorities alongside other equally important agenda items, which include mitigation, carbon markets and Global Stock Take (GST).

However, he explained that Africa’s recurrent agenda on its “special needs and special circumstances” has continued to be sabotaged by both wealthy nations and certain developing countries.

“It is unfortunate that Africa’s repeated efforts to have an agenda item under the Paris Agreement on Africa’s Special Needs and Special Circumstances, continue to be frustrated by some fellow developing country members,” Mr Mohamed said.

He said “despite the genuine reasons presented by Africa and agreeable to most, certain developing country parties supporting developed countries in the attempts to weaken the provisions of the Convention, have ganged up to block the request which is recognised under para 4 (1)(e) of the Climate Change Convention.”

In the face of this, the AGN Chair said Africa will continue to demand implementation of the Convention which is the basis for the Paris Agreement and global climate action.

“This is not a vulnerability contest, but an issue of Africa’s unique economic and developmental circumstances. We hope the unity of developing countries will not be fractured by the actions of these Parties,” he said.

During a meeting with the World Health Organisation (WHO) team led by Elena Villalobos, Technical Officer for Climate Change and Health, the group highlighted how health was complicating and worsening the global disease burden, and the need to urgently mainstream it in climate processes and policies at global, regional and country levels.

The AGN seized the opportunity to highlight the realities of climate consequences in Africa and the group’s readiness to engage on the health agenda.

“For us in Africa, we have always insisted that climate change is a matter of development. We see firsthand how climate continues to devastate our economies, affecting all key sectors, and health is at the receiving end of all these impacts,” the AGN group noted.

On Wednesday, negotiators following up on Adaptation, also expressed worry over the prospect of achieving significant milestones on adaptation funding for the Global South, particularly Africa.

“The process has not really shown commitment from annex 1 countries(wealthy nations )who are supposed to fund development as enshrined in the Paris Agreement,” a negotiator told PREMIUM TIMES on Wednesday.

Some frustrated negotiators said the conversation on adaptation, which is a key priority for Africa, couldn’t get parties to agree on a draft decision.

“A couple of the draft decisions that were not agreed on have been shifted to SBC 2, Bonn, 2025. So far, the NAPs have hit a gap. We are really not excited as Africans, because one of our key demands coming to Baku is ensuring more finance on adaptation,” a negotiator said.

A negotiator said if there is no decision that has been agreed on, it then means that the adaptation decision has hit a slug here in Baku.