The 'disastrous miscalculation' that could have cost James Cleverly

Committee Room 14 in the Commons is no stranger to drama. The vast wood-panelled room has hosted the Tory Party's backbench 1922 Committee for decades and has been the scene of innumerable rows, plots and leadership contests.

But it has rarely seen a shock to match today's, when former home secretary James Cleverly was dumped out of the leadership race just 24 hours after taking a seemingly impregnable lead.

As politicians and journalists gathered in the chilly room this afternoon, the discussion was focused solely on whether Robert Jenrick or Kemi Badenoch would be ejected from the contest – and who Mr Cleverly would face in the final round.

No surprise then that when the final result was read out by 1922 chairman Bob Blackman there were audible gasps as people tried to process the outcome.

Mr Cleverly, who was installed as the clear favourite following a barnstorming speech at last week's Tory conference, was out.

What had just happened? How had Mr Cleverly gone from seeing his vote surge from 21 to 39 the previous day to falling back to 37 today, leaving him agonisingly short of the 40 needed to secure a place in the final?

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No-one yet knows the full truth – and perhaps we never will, since the ballot of Tory MPs is anonymous. But the answer lies in the dark arts of Conservative leadership contests.

Mr Cleverly's campaign team had pledged last night there would be 'no games' in the final ballot today. 

But it is hard to escape the conclusion that his team gambled on trying to manipulate the contest to give him an 'easier' opponent in the final round.

A source on the 1922 Committee said: 'Everyone is scratching their heads but it looks like Cleverly's camp has made a disastrous miscalculation.'

Mr Cleverly certainly had motivation to try to keep Mrs Badenoch off the ballot paper as she has repeatedly come out ahead of him in polls of Conservative Party members who will now pick the leader.

And he appeared to have the means. After Tuesday's surge he was eight votes clear of Mr Jenrick, who was just one ahead of Mrs Badenoch. 

Tory insiders had predicted he would scoop up more than half of the 20 votes previously held by Tom Tugendhat, who was knocked out yesterday. On the face of it, he had a few votes to spare.

So-called 'vote-lending' is frowned upon and is impossible to prove, given the anonymous nature of the vote. Despite this, it has been a common theme in recent Tory leadership contests.

But the numbers this time were so tight it was always going to be a dangerous tactic. And Mr Cleverly's camp appears to have been too clever by half.