LORD ASHCROFT's tour of US reveals where election will be won and lost

Four days to go in America and we're down to the closing arguments. Donald Trump's message is 'Kamala broke it; I'll fix it'. But true to form, that's been obscured by the huge row over a joke about Puerto Rico – risque or disgraceful, depending on how you see things – made by a comedian at his weekend rally at Madison Square Garden.

It's debatable how many still on the Trump train will be compelled to jump off by the latest in a long line of such incidents. But with things as tight as they are, any distraction is unwelcome. This will also be the view in Kamala HQ after President Biden responded to the rally by calling Trump supporters 'garbage'. The White House insists he was talking about the comedian, not the voters, but the words are out there.

This in turn overshadows Harris's own final pitch, made on the spot where the former president spoke before the storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021: don't return to the chaos of Trump. Her negative final focus is a stark reversal of the vibes of hope and 'joy' of her early campaign. (In fact, there's been a sometimes contradictory mixture of the two approaches. On Sunday she told a church in Philadelphia she was 'determined to turn the page on hatred and division' – a few days after using a CNN interview to label her opponent 'a fascist').

It's frustrating for some voters who still have only a hazy idea of what she stands for. 'They were asking her a question on Fox News about the border and she said, 'Wait, let's talk about what Trump did'. It's like, no, tell us what you're going to do,' one exasperated voter told us in Charlotte, North Carolina, in our final round of swing-state focus groups.

Opinions differ as to whether Harris is keeping things vague to keep her electoral tent as wide as possible, or because there are few firm plans to be specific about.

Another explanation for her putting the spectre of Trump front and centre is that the Democrats are worried about turning out their base, not least the minority voters who traditionally form the bedrock of the party's support.

Barack Obama's recent appeal to black men to vote for Harris – in which he controversially suggested they 'just aren't feeling the idea of having a woman as president' – adds weight to this theory, as does Michelle Obama's call for men to support their women by voting for her.

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EXCLUSIVE
LORD ASHCROFT: Voters still aren't sure what Kamala Harris really stands for

But it's clear from our conversations there are many reasons why Trump is polling more strongly among minorities than any Republican since Nixon. One is that party loyalties are loosening.

'The Democrats are expecting us to vote for them,' one African-American man told us in Atlanta, Georgia. 'They're not really listening to what it is black people are saying and what we want at the end of the day. It's about my security and my money. Border control, wars that we're in. My dollar doesn't go as far as it went four years ago.'

Many also identify with the entrepreneurship and ambition Trump embodies: 'Now more than ever, black and brown men are investors, they're business owners,' another added. 'They want their money, like everyone else.'

If they have reservations – including the racial climate during another Trump term and the suggestion he'll give police officers immunity from prosecution – many find plenty to put them off the Democrats, including their record on border control and stance on transgender rights.

There are also concerns about Harris herself. 'She plays identity politics,' said another man in Atlanta. 'When it's important to get the black vote, she tries to trump up her blackness and pretend like she knows what the black experience is.'

Some feel that as a woman of Jamaican and Indian heritage, she overplays her black identity. A discussion of cooking tips with a chef in Savannah, Georgia, struck many as a particularly egregious example. She claimed she washed her collard greens – a cabbage-like vegetable that's a staple of Southern cuisine – in her bathtub. 'No black person is putting greens in the tub,' retorted an incredulous man in Charlotte. 'That's the stupidest thing I ever heard. Saying things that are so outlandish to connect with black people is so pandering.'

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Harris's public performances have left many doubting what she stands for, writes LORD ASHCROFT

Some were also unimpressed by the celebrities with whom she's taken the stage. 'Was that supposed to be empowering?' asked a woman of Harris's appearance with Megan Thee Stallion, a US rapper whose exuberant twerking at a Democrat rally in Atlanta raised eyebrows. 'It was just unclassy.' Her record as District Attorney in California is also a worry. 'She prosecuted a lot of African-American men more harshly than she did others,' claims one voter. 'She wasn't an advocate for the black man, but now she needs the vote, it's 'I'm going to help you'.'

With polls in decisive states still suggesting the race is too close to call, everything hinges on persuading such sceptical Americans to turn out. Those who haven't done so already, that is. Already, 57million Americans have cast their ballots. The question is, who will run out of voters first?

This is where money can really talk. Getting out the vote is expensive, and the Democrats have raised over $1billion – nearly three times as much as their opponents. Philadelphia, Detroit and other big cities in swing states are festooned with Harris posters and teeming with campaigners.

Trump's team points out that his polling numbers are better than at this stage in previous elections. However, he does best among those who are less interested in the election and less certain they'll bother. If they all show up, they could well put him back in the White House, but the Harris machine is formidable. Tuesday's result will come down to one thing: which side wants it more.

• Lord Ashcroft is a businessman, philanthropist, author and pollster. His research is at LordAshcroftPolls.com. 

• For more information on his work, visit lordashcroft.com. Follow him on X or Facebook @LordAshcroft.