Government's plans to cut net migration could fail to hit large drops, advisers warn

Advisers have issued a warning that the Government's plans to reduce net migration may not lead to significant declines in numbers.

The Migration Advisory Committee (MAC) urged ministers to avoid a "one-size-fits-all" strategy as it released its annual report. The Prime Minister had previously declared a substantial reform of the immigration system, branding the updated figures which estimated nearly one million net migrations last year as "unprecedented" and "off the scale".

Newly revised estimates by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that the difference between incoming and outgoing individuals reached a peak of 906,000 in the year leading up to June 2023, an increase of 166,000 over prior calculations. These statistics, which pertain to the period under the previous Conservative government before the general election, have since seen a 20% decrease, with the latest figures showing 728,000 for the year up to June 2024.

Following the observation of "unusually high" net migration figures between 2021 and 2023, MAC chairman Professor Brian Bell stated: "We know that recent figures have shown net migration falling."

He added, "This has been driven both by government policy changes and by other factors, such as the impact of enhanced enforcement of the genuine vacancy test in the care sector."

He further warned, "Whilst we are expecting net migration to fall further, we would caution the government against seeing linking immigration and skills policy as a one-size-fits all approach to bringing down net migration and encourage them to continue to consider individual circumstances within sectors."

Sir Keir Starmer has reiterated promises to reduce immigration but refrained from setting any specific targets. Despite promising his Government would "reduce immigration – legal and illegal", he was vague about how this would be achieved when he outlined a "plan for change" in a speech earlier this month.