Ireland General Election 2024: The paths to power for Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael
by Louise Burne · Irish Mirror“The function of a general election is to form a government,”
These were the words of Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin on Wednesday morning.
This is, of course, blindingly obvious but, in fairness to the outgoing Tánaiste, the broader point he was making was that due to poll numbers and the way today’s election could play out, the path to power looks uncertain for each of the three big parties.
READ MORE: Live updates as the nation goes to the polls
There will be 174 TDs in the 34th Dáil. When the Ceann Comhairle is elected, this falls to 173. A bare majority requires at least 88 TDs, but you would want a few more as a safety net. So what do Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Fein need to do to get their feet under the cabinet table?
Sinn Fein
Following the 2020 election, Mary Lou McDonald repeatedly said she did not run enough candidates.
This time, the party is running 71 candidates. Even if they are all elected, they will need a partner if they want to form a government.
While polls have the party neck-and-neck with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil, the difference is that there are far fewer parties willing to row in behind Sinn Féin.
Both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have ruled them out and the smaller parties on the left are not jumping up and down about them either.
If we take the polls at face value and say Sinn Féin will get 20% of all first preference votes, it is in line for 35 seats, which I think is likely.
This would mean they would need to find at least 55 seats somewhere to form a government.
McDonald said yesterday [thurs] she would like transfers to People Before Profit and the Social Democrats, who the Business Post/Red C have at 2% and 6% respectively.
Unless an unexpected earthquake is coming Sinn Féin’s way, it is very difficult to see how the party can form a government.
Fianna Fáil
Micheál Martin has made no secret of his desire to be Taoiseach again.
He has a huge amount of power coming into today’s [fri] election, with his party currently on track to win the highest number of seats, with predictions and my calculations suggesting that it could be at least 40 or 45.
There are two options on the table. The first is going into power with Sinn Féin. Martin has said he will not do this. But he also said in 2020 he would not go in with Fine Gael.
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The more likely option is another coalition with Simon Harris and Fine Gael.
The old Civil War foes may not get enough seats between them to form a government alone, meaning it will need a smaller party or independents to come on board.
Could the Greens secure enough seats to get back into government? It seems like FF/FG doesn’t want them around.
Perhaps this is why Mr Martin has been showing a bit of ankle to the Labour Party.
Fine Gael
Another man determined to be Taoiseach is Simon Harris.
He has had a troubled election campaign, marred by mistakes from the start.
The party has dramatically slipped down the rankings and also has the issue of 18 of its outgoing TDs retiring. Incumbency matters in elections, and Harris has a big hill to climb in this regard.
As mentioned, Fianna Fáil will likely win more seats than Fine Gael. My calculations currently have them at least five seats behind. They are likely to win a few more than Sinn Féin.
The question is, if Martin’s party wins far more seats than Harris’, will Fianna Fáil pull the rotating Taoiseach arrangement?
Fine Gael is unlikely to go into government if Harris won’t be Taoiseach at all.
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