Major parties making gains in TPU-Curia poll
· RNZThe major parties have gained - with National nearly regaining what it lost last month - at the expense of the minor parties, in the latest Taxpayers Union-Curia poll.
However, both parties' leaders - Christopher Luxon and Chris Hipkins - continued to fall in the preferred prime minister measure.
The shift for National is enough to net them four more seats than in the previous month's poll. The coalition parties would still have enough support to govern.
- National: 38.8 percent, up 3.9 percentage points (48 seats)
- Labour: 31.5 percent, up 1.2 (39 seats)
- Greens: 9.3 percent, down 1.1 (11 seats)
- ACT: 8.5 percent, down 1.2 (11 seats)
- NZ First: 6.5 percent, down 1.1 (8 seats)
- Te Pāti Māori: 2.5 percent, down 1.1 (6 seats)
The results assume all electorate seats are held.
For parties outside Parliament, Outdoors and Freedoms was on 1.3 percent (+0.8), TOP was on 0.9 percent (-1.6), and Vision NZ was on 0.4 (+0.1), while 3.4 percent were undecided on the party vote question.
The outfit also released the results of its polling on what voters thought were the top issues.
Cost of Living was highest with 37.9 percent of respondents selecting it as one of their top three concerns, up 1.4 points, as one of their top three issues.
The economy was next at 31.1 percent (down 2.6), health was third at 27.4 percent (down 8.1), with law and order at 19.1 percent, education at 18 percent, and the Treaty at 16.9 percent.
On the preferred prime minister measure, National's Christopher Luxon fell for the third time in a row, while Labour's Chris Hipkins also fell slightly after gaining significantly the previous month.
The Greens co-leader Chlöe Swarbrick also took a heavy hit, down to her lowest rating since 2023.
Preferred prime minister:
- Christopher Luxon: 26.5 percent - down 1.2 percentage points
- Chris Hipkins: 15.5 percent - down 1.4
- David Seymour: 7.4 percent, steady
- Winston Peters: 6.3 percent, down 2.1
- Chlöe Swarbrick: 5.2 percent, down 4.7
Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methodologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.
The poll was conducted by Curia Market Research Ltd for the NZ Taxpayers' Union. It is a random poll of 1000 adult New Zealanders and is weighted to the overall adult population. It was conducted by phone (landlines and mobile) and online between Wednesday 6 and Sunday 10 November 2024, with a maximum margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.
Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand. It recently resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body.
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