'Even Mahayuti Didn't Expect This Triumph'

'Pro-incumbency worked big time for the ruling party.'
'It has never happened in the past of pro-incumbency working so much for the ruling party.'

IMAGE: Nationalist Congress Party leaders Ajit Pawar, right, Praful Patel, left, and Sunil Tatkare celebrate the NCP's performance in the Maharashtra assembly elections, November 23, 2024. Photograph: ANI Photo

The Maharashtra assembly election results have shocked poll pundits with the scale of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led Mahayuti alliance's victory.

At last count the alliance was slated to win 228 out of the state's 288 assembly seats.

This mandate was on a scale no one saw coming.

What factors led to the Mahayuti's victory?

And what is the future of Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray, who were ranged against the Bharatiya Janata Party-led alliance, after this debacle?

Syed Firdaus Ashraf/Rediff.com spoke to political commentator Ravikiran Deshmukh to find out.

The Maha Vikas Aghadi won 30 plus seats out of 48 in the Lok Sabha elections from Maharashtra in June 2024 and the BJP alliance had to settle for far fewer numbers.
In four months the BJP and its allies have swept the assembly elections.

Nobody expected this kind of results as the situation has completely changed compared to the Lok Sabha elections.

There is an agrarian crisis going on in Maharashtra and farmers are not getting right remunerative prices.

Industries are shifting out of Maharashtra, which too was an issue in the elections.

Considering all these situations, no one predicted this landslide victory. Even the ruling alliance did not expect this kind of victory.

What factors worked for the Mahayuti?

The Laadki Bahin Yojana scheme worked for the government in the elections.

There were 2.5 crore (25 million) beneficiaries of this scheme. Lower middle class women and to some extent even middle class women got this money in their bank accounts. This resulted in women become financially stronger and that tilted the balance of power towards the Mahayuti alliance.

Laadki Bahin Yojana did miracles for the BJP and its allies.

Did slogans like 'katenge toh batenge' and 'ek hai toh safe hai work for BJP?

Many will not agree, but this too had an impact.

There was an alleged letter and speeches by Sajad Nomani, spokesperson for the All India Muslim Personal Law Board where he said that Muslims who vote for the BJP should be boycotted socially.

Besides that the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi leaders met Ulema Council leaders where they promised a lot of things, which might have led to reverse polarisation among Hindus. People become sentimental over such issues when it comes to voting.

Another point is the pro-incumbency factor working big time for the ruling party. It has never happened in the past of pro-incumbency working so much for the ruling party.

What is Uddhav Thackeray's future?

It is difficult times for him. He will have to begin anew and build up the party from scratch.

He lost the party symbol -- the bow and arrow -- to Eknath Shinde when he split the party and now after the results it has been proved that even the public supported Shinde moving out.

It is hard work ahead for Uddhav and Aaditya Thackeray.

What about the allegations of corruption against Eknath Shinde's MLAs? They were being called 'pachas khoke', but 38 out of those 40 rebel MLAs are winning? Is corruption not an issue?

In the last three months around Rs 7,500 was deposited in the bank accounts of women under the Laadki Bahin Yojana. They don't bother what these MLAs got in return because they are happy that they got money in their bank accounts. 'Pachas khoke' became a secondary issue for these voters.

What is Sharad Pawar's future?

He has got eight members of the Lok Sabha. He has his daughter Supriya Sule as their leader. Besides, more than a dozen MLAs are winning from his party. There is a big question mark for Sharad Pawar about how he will build his party in the future. The same challenge holds for Uddhav Thackeray too.

What about the RSS' role in the Mahayuti victory?

They put their strong team on the ground to work in this election. In Marathwada, their workers worked hard in many districts (where they had not done well in the Lok Sabha elections). Devendra Fadnavis too coordinated with them well to ensure the Mahayuti alliance's victory.