'Trump's Win Won't Affect Skilled Immigrants'

'As far as skilled immigration is concerned, the US needs Indian skills and Indian talent, and there are no two opinions about it even among US companies.'

IMAGE: US President Joe Biden with President-elect Donald J Trump in the Oval Office at the White House, November 13, 2024. Photograph: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

Vijay Chauthaiwale, who is in charge of the Bharatiya Janata Party's foreign affairs department, has led the party's Indian diaspora outreach for over a decade.

"There will be better relations because Trump is very clear on what he wants, which helps at the time of negotiations, rather than pressing on vague issues like human rights and minorities' rights," Chauthaiwale tells Archis Mohan/Business Standard in a telephonic interview about what India can expect from the second Trump administration.

What is your assessment of the US presidential election result?

The trends and the news coming from the United States in the past three-four weeks had indicated a clear momentum for Donald Trump. 0So for me the results were not a big surprise.

American voters rejected the ultra-liberalism and wokeism, which has become sort of a core of the Democratic party.

Much of the analysis now, including in the American press, has attributed the defeat of the Democratic party to these ultra-left elements.

A majority of the people who are centrists became uncomfortable with these positions, and shifted towards the Republicans.

If that is the case, then 'moderation' would be the key word for the next phase in US politics, which is good for everyone.

Moreover, the economy and inflation were pertinent issues.

Unfortunately, Kamala Harris could not clarify her position on these critical issues, and therefore, she always tried to vilify Trump, accusing him of being a fascist and unstable. But the people rejected that hypothesis.

You have interacted with the Indian diaspora in the US over the past decade. Why do you think Indian Americans, or even Hispanics, are shifting towards the Republicans?

You are right. Almost all minorities, except maybe the Arab Americans, are shifting slowly towards the Republicans.

In the vote proportion of these minorities, including Latinos, which was there for Joe Biden (in the 2020 presidential election), there is a significant reduction in Democratic share (in 2024) and a subsequent increase in the share of the Republicans.

This is also a reason why Trump has not only won in the electoral college but also in the popular vote, which was not the case in the last two elections.

As far as Indian Americans are concerned, I believe the majority of them are still voting for the Democrats.

But they are also slowly shifting towards the Republicans, partly because of the prosperity of the Indian community, because as they become prosperous, they tend to be more conservative and more Republican.

The second is the ultra-liberal left attitude of the Democrats.

But on the other side, seven Indian-origin Congresswomen and Congressmen have won.

They are all Democrats. So an Indian American leadership is yet to get evolved in the Republican party.

So it is a mixed picture. I would not say that Indian Americans have tilted or are tilting overwhelmingly towards one party or the other.

What does the result mean for India-US relations, particularly in the context of the good equation Prime Minister Narendra Modi has with the US president-elect?

Modi has seen three presidents -- first Barack Obama, then Trump, subsequently Biden, and now again Trump.

On each transition, there was an apprehension that there would be some problem or some hindrance in relations.

But relations grew from strength to strength. So I do not think there will be any issues that are not surmountable even in the second Trump presidency.

My sense is that there will be better relations because Trump is very clear on what he wants, which helps at the time of negotiations, rather than pressing on vague issues like human rights and minorities' rights.

But at the same time, on trade, he is going to be protectionist. He will restrict imports, or at least there will be duties on imports.

So India will have to face all these issues. So like any other global relations, these are going to be a mixed bag.

But this mixed bag is going to be in favour of stronger India-US relations, especially on strategic issues.

Defence cooperation is like never before. There is bipartisan support for stronger India-US relations in the US Congress.

In September, Trump called India a big trade abuser. In his first term, he called India 'tariff king' and increased duties on steel and aluminium exports.

I am sure there will be some negotiation ... what he does as president will depend on several factors.

Some experts say pressure on India with regard to its relations with Russia could reduce. India might even benefit with the focus likely to be on China. What is your assessment?

I will not say that it's a zero-sum game. It will depend on how Trump would like to intervene in the Ukraine-Russia war, and if he puts pressure to end the war, which he has said very clearly. Then definitely it will benefit India.

There are concerns about his stance on immigration.

Illegal immigration is an issue in the US. And we cannot say that you spare Indian illegal immigrants over, say, Mexicans or South Americans.

There were some deportations if media reports are correct. So, maybe deportation will happen with greater speed and frequency.

But as far as skilled immigration is concerned, the US needs Indian skills and Indian talent, and there are no two opinions about it even among US companies.

I do not think it will adversely affect skilled immigration. Of course, there are long-outstanding issues as far as H-1B visa renewals are concerned.

The green card waiting-list, I guess, extends to several hundred years. So, if the US is interested in getting skilled immigrants from India, they need to resolve this issue.

Feature Presentation: Aslam Hunani/Rediff.com