Eknath Shinde Has No Cards Left To Play

The meeting in New Delhi etc is just the BJP being nice to the man who helped it realise its dream by stabbing Uddhav in the back, notes Saisuresh Sivaswamy.

IMAGE: A clearly downcast Eknath Shinde, right, looks on as Devendra Fadnavis, left, presents Amit Shah with a bouquet, November 28, 2024. Photograph: ANI Photo

No one really expected Eknath Shinde to continue as Maharashtra chief minister after the assembly election results were out regardless of who got how many seats.

The Bharatiya Janata Party virtually announced its intent to grab the CM's post for itself when it contested the lion's share of seats -- if, despite such a clear indication, Shinde's Shiv Sena entertained the hope that they would be credited for the government's stellar electoral performance and the gaddi would be theirs, they have an amazingly rosy image of the BJP and its intent.

Bihar was a stray case where the BJP has allowed a junior partner to retain the chief ministership -- because they are aware that given Nitish Kumar's ideological flexibility he would simply cross over to his former allies if pushed.

However, that was not the case in Maharashtra, where Shinde has no recourse except throw in his lot with the BJP. The doors to Matoshree -- where Uddhav Thackeray lives -- are shut to him for ever, and the rest of the Opposition wouldn't let him in.

Perhaps, if the numbers were not so stacked in favour of the BJP, not where it can easily jettison either the NCP or the Shiv Sena and still form a government, Shinde's options would be wider, but with the electorate plumbing in favour of the BJP like never before, he has nowhere else to go.

IMAGE: This time it's Ajit Pawar's turn to present Amit Shah with a bouquet as Shinde, Fadnavis, BJP national President J P Nadda, third from left, and NCP MPs Sunil Tatkare, left, and Praful Patel, second from left, look on, November 28, 2024. Photograph: ANI Photo

A couple of interesting revelations if the source-based reporting by our news television channels is to be believed (there has been no official denial so far, however).

One is that Amit Shah's name cropped up in the interregnum as having assured/promised Shinde that he would remain CM if the Mahayuti was voted back.

Five years ago, Uddhav Thackeray had made the same claim, that the Shiv Sena was promised the CMship if their alliance came to power, but this was rebuffed by the home minister then. This time, there has been no denial.

The second interesting thing was the Shiv Sena equating Maharashtra with Bihar and demanding the BJP follow a similar coalition dharma. The BJP does have a road map for Bihar, just as it had one for Maharashtra right from the time they agreed to be a junior partner to Bal Thackeray.

Nitish is in the same position that the former was; it is only a matter of time before the BJP moves in to occupy his political space. This is the difference between a individual-run outfit, which is what the Congress or the Janata Dal-United really is, and a cadre-based party.

In that sense the BJP is very different. Where the Congress is a junior partner to the regional major, it continues to play perpetual second fiddle. The BJP, on the other hand, merely bides its time and doesn't hesitate to strike.

It can be a coup, like with Uddhav Thackeray after his father's death, or a gentle easing out, like with Eknath Shinde. The tactic may differ but the end result is the same.

Did Uddhav Thackeray wisen up to the BJP's strategy only after it was too late, or did he know it all along?

In the 2009 assembly elections, which was fought when Thackeray Sr was around, the BJP had overtaken the Shiv Sena's tally, cementing its long-held belief that it had the nous to rule the state on its own. By the time 2014 rolled up, two things had changed. The mild-mannered Uddhav was in charge of the Shiv Sena, and the driven Narendra Modi and Amit Shah were in charge of the BJP.

The 2014 assembly elections which the quondam friends fought separately but reunited post-verdict, showed how much the BJP had overtaken the Shiv Sena on whose coattails it had clung to for so long. The Shiv Sena realised it had no option but to go along, but it also made Uddhav realise that the BJP's hug was crushing.

So when a similar fractured mandate was thrown up in 2019, with no single party able to form the government, he decided to ditch the former junior ally, cross the aisle and make new alignments with the Congress and Sharad Pawar.

There was no other option before him to ensure the Shiv Sena's survival.

IMAGE: Shinde makes a point at a press conference at his Thane residence, November 27, 2024. Photograph: ANI Photo

Unfortunately for him, Eknath Shinde didn't share the same view.

What worked for Shinde -- and, for that matter, Ajit Pawar who ditched his uncle to move over to the BJP's side -- was the absence of historical baggage.

The party was not Shinde's, nor was the ideology, and it was a marriage of convenience. With Uddhav as dahej.

Shinde or Ajit Pawar would have had to prove their mettle if they had left the parent organisation and formed a new one on their own strength. Instead, with the BJP's blessing they took the easy way out by simply acquiring an existing party.

The difference between Shinde and Pawar is that the NCP has a fluid ideology that can fill any gap. But the Shiv Sena was weaned on Marathi asmita vis-à-vis the outsiders who were dominating the state.

Bal Thackeray, who Shinde proclaims as his mentor, projected Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj as the party's icon because of his resistance to the Delhi sultanate and as a sign of the state's pride.

There was no other option before him to ensure the Shiv Sena's survival.

IMAGE: Shinde at the press conference at his Thane residence, November 27, 2024. Photograph: ANI Photo

So when Eknath Shinde, whose able governance, his Shiv Sena believes, led to the electorate's overwhelming support in the elections, is made to hang loose for four days after the verdict before holding a capitulating press conference where he announces that he will do what the bosses in Delhi wish, he has let down both his party's icons: Thackeray and Chhatrapati Shivaji.

The sad fact is that the autorickshaw driver turned chief minister has no cards left to play. With Ajit Pawar's NCP quickly proclaiming its support for a BJP-led government, Shinde's 50 MLAs were made redundant. All the meetings in New Delhi etc are just the BJP being nice to the man who helped it realise its dream by stabbing Uddhav in the back.

And if in the 2029 assembly elections the BJP gets a majority on its own, for which it will go all out, Shinde and his Shiv Sena will remain a footnote in the state's political history.

The growth and expansion of Shinde's Shiv Sena runs counter to the BJP's plans, which include the former remaining a useful underling, not an equal.

Maybe then, Shinde will realise that he was never a tiger like Thackeray Sr, only a cat's paw.