Kamala vs Trump: Whom do Desis support?

In a warning sign for the Democrats, Indian-Americans' attachment to the party is declining in the United States while the share of Republican identifiers held steady.

IMAGE: Republican presidential nominee, former US President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris shake hands as they attend a presidential debate hosted by ABC in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10, 2024. Photograph: Brian Snyder/Reuters

A new survey, the '2024 Indian-American Attitudes', conducted by the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in partnership with the research and analytics firm YouGov, says Indian-Americans remain solidly behind the Democratic Party but a modest uptick is seen in support for Republican candidates and former president Donald Trump.

The analysis is based on a nationally representative online survey of 714 Indian-American citizens between September 18 and October 15. The survey has an overall margin of error of +/- 3.7 per cent.

According to the survey, 61 per cent of registered Indian-American voter respondents plan to vote for Harris while 32 per cent intend to vote for Trump.

It said a modest increase in the share of respondents willing to vote for Trump had been seen since 2020.

On the other hand, 67 per cent of Indian-American women intend to vote for Harris while 53 per cent of men say they plan to vote for Harris.

Twenty-two per cent of women intend to vote for Trump while 39 per cent of men plan to cast their ballots for him. This gender gap appears starkest with younger voters, according to the survey.

There are more than 5.2 million people of Indian origin residing in the United States.

Indian-Americans are now the second-largest immigrant group in the United States and have emerged as an important political actor thanks to the community's rapid demographic growth, the close margins in modern presidential elections, and the diaspora's remarkable professional success.

Abortion and reproductive rights are a highly salient issue for Indian Americans this election year, ranking as their second-most-important policy concern (after inflation/prices and tied with the economy and jobs).

Democrats and women are especially motivated by abortion this election cycle, the report said.

"Although Indian-Americans hold a dim view of many prominent Republican leaders, the party's disadvantage with Indian-Americans goes beyond personalities," the report suggested.

It said the Republican Party was out of sync with multiple policy positions held by members of the Indian-American community.

"When Democrats are asked why they do not identify as Republicans, they cite the latter's intolerance of minorities, its stance on abortion, and ties to Christian evangelicalism above all," it said.

According to the report, respondents rate Indian-American Republicans such as Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Usha Vance (the wife of Republican vice presidential nominee JD Vance) unfavourably.

"However, there is evidence of asymmetric polarisation: Democrats rate prominent Republicans worse than Republicans assess leading Democrats," the report said.

Out of 5.2 million people of Indian origin residing in the US, about 3.9 million are eighteen or older.

Based on 2022 data, there are roughly 2.6 million eligible Indian-American voters in the US.

While the Indian diaspora comprises a small share of the overall electorate, several factors account for the heightened attention to this group in this election year.

Indian-Americans are what are called 'high propensity' voters, the report said.

The data from the Indian-American Attitudes Survey (IAAS) said 96 per cent of registered Indian-American voters are likely to vote in this November's elections.

Second, the community's elevated socioeconomic status has made it an attractive target for campaigns run by both parties.

The median household income for Indian Americans is roughly $153,000, more than double the figure for the country as a whole.

'Third, there is undoubtedly increased attention on the political views of Indian-Americans this election year because Kamala Harris, whose mother was an Indian immigrant, is on the ballot. While Harris has long identified as an African-American woman, she also acknowledges and embraces her Indian heritage,' the report said.

'Last but not least, there is some evidence suggesting that Asian Americans may be gradually shifting their allegiance from the Democratic Party, their traditional home, toward the Republican Party. Compared to other racial groups, Asian-Americans tend to have weaker attachments to political parties, and recent elections have seen an incremental shift in this group's voting behaviour in favour of the Republican Party, a trend observed among other non-White voters as well,' it said.