TRU revenue could take hit

The head of TRU World says foreign student permit caps announced earlier this year could slash new international enrolment at Thompson Rivers University by half in the next five years — which could represent a major hit to the university's revenue.

Following an announcement in January that the number of international student permits would be cut by 35 percent across Canada and capped for two years, TRU has seen its international enrolment decline.

Speaking with Castanet, TRU’s VP International Baihua Chadwick said there are currently 4,295 international students on campus, marking a decline of about 400 compared to the same time last year.

“The decrease is actually most in our two year diploma programs and four year undergrad also, and graduate students are stable at the moment,” Chadwick said.

She noted TRU was proactively trying to bring down its international headcount to its target of 4,000 students prior to the permit cap. She said TRU's enrolment target will likely continue to drop in future years.

Chadwick said the reduction is primarily being caused by the uncertainty around Canada being a viable place to study and the message being sent to prospective students.

“That message was really telling international students we don’t want you, don’t come — and if you want to go study, go to other countries,” Chadwick said.

Full effect not yet realized

Following the announcement that permits would be capped, the B.C. government implemented an attestation letter system in early March.

Each post-secondary institution is given an allotment of letters. International students must receive a letter from the institution they will be attending before applying for a study permit — although a letter doesn’t guarantee a permit.

Chadwick told Castanet in April that TRU was allocated 2,400 letters. At a TRU senate meeting on Monday, president Brett Fairbairn said the university would likely only use 35 per cent of its allotment of letters. The university welcomed 679 new international students to campus this semester.

“Due to the ways in which applications, demand for education has been suppressed by what's been in the news, the number of international students that we will see in Canada will be much less than the cap,” Fairbairn said.

Fairbairn said TRU is seeing a “cushion year” with the decline in international enrolment mitigated by the number of students that are still in the university’s “recruitment pipeline.” He said enrolment is expected to drop sharply in January.

Chadwick said the full impact of the permit changes could take years to materialize. With more changes to permits on the horizon, she estimated it could be five years before the university’s international enrolment restabilizes.

“New student enrolment, I wouldn't be surprised to take a 50 per cent hit," she said.

TRU has budgeted for $91 million in revenue from international tuition in the 2024-25 year, based on a projected 4,200 international enrolment this fall when the budget was approved in March. The university is budgeting for $309.7 million in total revenue over the same period.

Goalposts keep moving

Earlier this month, the Liberal government announced it would be further reducing the number of international student permits by another 10 per cent.

Chadwick said it's another example of how the message coming from Ottawa is constantly changing.

“We are in a very fluid and dynamic period of time, and nothing we say or we do is going to be fixed,” she said. “We're still anticipating more changes coming and our strategies will have to change.”

She said the rules continue to change as well. In January, for example, Ottawa said graduate students wouldn’t be impacted by the cap — but Chadwick said they now are.

She said international students that want to continue their education by transitioning from high school into a bachelor program, or a bachelor to a master’s program, will need to re-apply for an attestation letter.

“They're already here. Initially, the announcement said they wouldn’t [have to re-apply]," she said.

“I am exhausted, just because you have to invest so much more of your energy and your time on monitoring, listening to each word from different sources.”

More permit changes by November

She said further restrictions to post-graduate work permits are expected by November, when Ottawa is required to announce its immigration plans.

“Minister [Marc] Miller on Monday said they will announce a list of field of studies that, according to the federal consensus, are aligned with occupations in shortage,” Chadwick said.

“This could impact 900 different occupations, fields of study. What are they going to say? We're waiting for the details.”

Chadwick said she was concerned post-graduate work permit restrictions won’t take into account different labour market shortages in each province.

“If they decide on the list for something that's in shortage for Newfoundland, what about the British Columbian universities?” she said.

“Do we have to align to that? But that means we're going to produce excessive graduates who will go to the labor market.”

She said restrictions to post-graduate work permits have been a major factor in reducing international enrolment at TRU.

Recruitment ramps up

In an effort to bolster enrolment, Chadwick said TRU has prioritized recruiting from countries in Latin America and is exploring markets in mid and east Asia — regions that are “less sensitive” to the permit changes, especially around postgraduate work rights.

TRU has also increased recruitment activity at international high schools, is building infrastructure and resources to support high-demand fields, enhanced its scholarship offerings, expanded its communication strategies and developed partnerships for new recruitment channels.

Chadwick said the university is also working on developing new programs that are attractive to both domestic and international students. The problem is the lengthy approval process.

“That's a long game that is perhaps three or four years down the road, but we have to do that now,” she said. “It would be a miracle to get something approved within two years.”

TRU Provost and Vice-President Academic Gillian Balfour told TRU senate on Monday domestic recruitment strategies are being developed as well, including allowing earlier major declarations, more flexible learning options, expanded program advising, and new marketing strategies.

Domestic applications at TRU are two per cent higher than last year.

Fairbairn said revenues will likely drop over a period of several years. A $5 million surplus is projected for the current year, but a significant deficit could be seen in outgoing years if no action is taken.

“I suspect that dealing with those challenges likely means both expediting the development of new and renewed programs, which will have the effect of increasing revenue, as well as acting to slow the rate and growth in our expenditures,” Fairbairn said.

“We don't expect our government grants to be cut, we don't expect our fees to be frozen, and we do have latitude to act to strengthen our own enrolments.”

Chadwick noted the university is hosting students from 109 countries and regions, a new record for the university.