David Eby's second chance

Imagine attending your own funeral when suddenly —  miraculously and inexplicably — you jolt back upright amongst the living. That’s a bit like being a BC New Democrat these days. The party lost its majority government on election day, faced the prospect of either being out of office entirely or grovelling to the two BC Greens for votes, and then abruptly regained its lifeline in Monday’s final count process to emerge with its majority intact.

From political devastation to resurrection in nine long days, as the closest election in provincial history played right down to the wire.

In the end, it wasn’t the razor-thin margins of Juan de Fuca-Malahat or Surrey City Centre that tilted the race, but the 634 votes in Surrey-Guildford. There, Conservative Honveer Singh Randhawa, who had been leading on election night by 103 votes, saw the results flip to NDP incumbent Garry Begg by 27 votes.

The final result falls within the 38-vote threshold for a judicial recount, which means we’ll have to wait several days more for the final, final count to give us the triple-final results of election 2024.

But there’s a very strong likelihood the BC NDP have scraped by with a 47-seat majority in the 93-seat legislature.

For Premier David Eby it represents a crucial second chance.

More than half the voters did not support Eby or the BC NDP in the election. He lost numerous ridings and cabinet ministers. The province is badly divided after a brutal election. Is he the premier to bridge the growing gap between rural and urban B.C.?

“After a close and hard-fought campaign, it's now time to come together to deliver for people,” Eby said in a statement after the final count.

The NDP can go one of two ways.

It can partner with the BC Greens and govern with the “progressive majority" Eby cited on election night, hoping to convince voters it is still on the right path with record spending and new programs.

Or, it can find areas of common ground with the BC Conservatives, who rode a wave of immense voter frustration to 44 seats in the legislature.

One path doubles down on the direction of the Eby administration from the last 22 months, in the hopes the big-swing initiatives that have defined his premiership in areas like housing will lead to tangible results before the next election and dissipate voter dissatisfaction.

The other is a change of course and attitude, to chip away at the Conservative momentum and win back the hardhat-wearing, working-class voters outside of Vancouver and Victoria who once backed John Horgan but don’t see much in common with the NDP of today.

"British Columbians have asked us to work together and make life better for them,” said Eby.

“That is exactly what we intend to do. A majority of B.C. voters have elected a legislature that shares common values – like addressing affordability, tackling climate change, making sure health care is there when you need it, and building an inclusive province with safe communities where everyone belongs.”

Either path he chooses, the legislature will function a bit differently for the returning premier.

There could very well be tie votes between the government and opposition parties, forcing the next speaker into the uncomfortable role of tie-breaker. It won’t be quite as easy to get things done for the NDP as it was before the election sapped away most of its electoral strength.

Still, the final count results get Eby and the NDP an unexpected reprieve. The party glimpsed the demise of its governing power. Now it has got a second lease on life. We’ll see how Eby uses it.

Rob Shaw has spent more than 16 years covering B.C. politics, now reporting for CHEK News and writing for Glacier Media. He is the co-author of the national bestselling book A Matter of Confidence, host of the weekly podcast Political Capital, and a regular guest on CBC Radio.

rob@robshawnews.com