Thousands more vote early

More than a quarter of all eligible voters in Kamloops’ two ridings have already made up their mind and cast their ballot well before election day — a trend seen across the province, with B.C. recording a record number of voters at advance polls.

Between the new and redrawn Kamloops Centre and Kamloops-North Thompson ridings, 23,942 people out of an eligible 91,391 cast an advance ballot, according to data released by Elections BC. That represents more than 26 per cent of voters.

Advance voting numbers in the Kamloops ridings were up over the previous two provincial elections, in 2020 and 2017. This year, 12,979 advance ballots were cast in Kamloops Centre, representing 30 per cent of eligible voters, and 10,963 were cast in Kamloops-North Thompson, representing 23 per cent of eligible voters.

Those numbers were significantly lower in 2020, when 8,925 in Kamloops-South Thompson and 7,977 in Kamloops-North Thompson voted at advance polls — less than 20 per cent of eligible voters.

In 2017, it was 6,896 in Kamloops-South Thompson and 6,744 in Kamloops-North Thompson, which represented about 16 per cent of eligible voters.

Former politician weighs in

Former Kamloops-South Thompson MLA Terry Lake told Castanet he thinks the robust advance voting numbers indicate a high level of interest in this year's election, which could yield a higher overall turnout.

While there’s the potential election night numbers will be modest, Lake said there tends to be greater voter turnout when a government has been in power a while.

The statistics indicate he may be right. Voter turnout across B.C. was 61 per cent in 2017, when the longstanding BC Liberal government was ousted, dropping to about 54 per cent in 2020 when the NDP’s first mandate was up.

Voter turnout in Kamloops for those elections mirrored the provincial results with 64 per cent and 60 per cent showing up to the polls in Kamloops-South and Kamloops-North Thompson in 2017 compared to 56 and 50 per cent between Kamloops-South and Kamloops-North Thompson in 2020.

Voter turnout provincially was 71 per cent in 2001 when the Liberals ousted the two-term NDP government, which dropped in the two subsequent elections while the Liberals remained in power — 62 per cent in 2005 and 55 per cent in 2009. It rose to 57 per cent in the 2013 election and 61 per cent when the NDP regained power in 2017.

“When the government’s been in a while there’s always a number of people who think ‘OK, they’ve had a chance, now it’s time for a change’ — and I think that does lead to a greater voter turnout,” Lake said.

He also said there have been some interesting storylines in this election campaign that may be peaking people’s interest, noting the collapse of the BC United Party and rise of the conservative “brand” may be fuelling greater interest in this election.

Lake said that move may also impact overall voter turnout negatively if orphaned voters feel compelled to sit out this election.

Across the province, a record number of votes have already been cast ahead of Saturday’s provincial election.

Figures released Thursday by Elections BC show a little more than one million votes were cast provincewide during the six days of advance polls, including a one-day record of 222,907 votes cast on the final day Wednesday.

That works out to 28.2 per cent of eligible voters across the province.

Lake predicts NDP majority

While pollster 338Canada shows the BC NDP and B.C. Conservatives neck and neck, former MLA Lake is predicting an NDP majority government when the dust settles on Saturday.

He said he thinks the NDP will take anywhere from 45 to 55 seats and the Conservatives 30 to 35, with the Greens holding onto one or two seats. There are 93 seats up for grabs, making 47 a majority.

“I haven’t broken it down riding-by-riding, but the fact is the NDP vote is far more efficient — they’re competitive in more ridings versus the Conservatives,” Lake said.

He said that while the Conservatives will likely sweep ridings in the Interior and northern parts of the province by wide margins, down in the Lower Mainland, where there are more ridings to win, the NDP has a greater chance to win.

Lake said he believes Conservative candidates in Kamloops' two ridings will be successful.

Meanwhile, 338Canada has Conservative Peter Milobar projected to win Kamloops Centre with 51 per cent of the vote, Kamal Grewal of the NDP with 38 per cent and BC Greens Randy Sunderman at a projected 10 per cent. In Kamloops-North Thompson, the pollster predicts Conservative Ward Stamer winning with 58 per cent of the vote, the NDP’s Maddi Genn with 35 per cent and the Tristan Cavers of the Greens with seven per cent.

Overall, 338Canada is predicting the NDP will form a majority government with 49 seats, with the Conservatives taking 42 seats and the Green Party taking two.