Non-confidence vote

Last week, I asked the question: "If given the chance to participate in a non-confidence vote on the Trudeau government, would you opt for an election now or prefer to wait until October 2025? What's your reasoning behind this choice?"

The response I received was overwhelming. To my surprise, almost everyone who responded expressed support for a federal election.

I'm surprised by this response, given that we currently have a provincial election scheduled for October. I expected more people to be hesitant about the possibility of a federal election in the fall as well. I was mistaken. Many respondents cited their difficult circumstances, with either themselves or their close friends and family struggling.

Some are seniors on fixed incomes who must choose between buying needed medication or gas and groceries. Many Canadian families, struggling to afford their rents or mortgages are are resorting to food banks to make ends meet. They want a government that will lower their taxes at the pump and reduce prices at grocery stores (which are heavily dependent on fuel prices). These individuals see the carbon tax and its supporters as the problem, not the solution.

For those who support a “carbon tax” election, I can inform you that next week in the House of Commons, the Conservatives plans to submit the following motion for a vote: "The House has no confidence in the prime minister and the government."

Does that mean there will be an election? If a majority of MPs vote no confidence in the government, it would trigger a fall federal election.

However, I believe that is unlikely. The government only needs the support of either the NDP or Bloc Québécois caucus to survive a confidence vote. By the numbers, the Liberals currently hold 154 seats and need 169 votes for a majority, given that the House of Commons has 338 seats. In other words, the Liberals need just 15 more votes. The Bloc Québécois currently holds 33 seats, the NDP 25 seats, and the Green Party two seats.

Rumours have already circulated that the Liberals and Bloc Québécois may negotiate a deal in which the Bloc receives concessions in exchange for supporting the Liberal government. That scenario could potentially allow the NDP to vote against the Liberals, knowing that with Bloc support, an election would still be avoided.

However, I don't believe the NDP will take that risk. In my opinion, they'll likely find a reason to support the government and avoid an election. I say "find a reason" because NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh continues to claim the Liberal government is "finished" and doesn't deserve to be re-elected.

Before I pose this week's question, I'd like to explain my reasoning. When I asked last week's question, I was surprised by how few individuals expressed opposition to the idea. At face value, that could suggest a significant portion of people in our area are deeply dissatisfied with the current government.

I wonder if some people are dissatisfied with the current minority government, where parties with relatively few seats can disproportionately influence its decisions. In other words, some might prefer a majority government or a different composition in our current minority government.

My question this week:

Would you prefer the next federal government to be a majority or another minority?

I can be reached at Dan.Albas@parl.gc.ca or call toll-free 1-800-665-8711.

Dan Albas is the Conservative MP for Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola.

This article is written by or on behalf of an outsourced columnist and does not necessarily reflect the views of Castanet.